Spatiotemporal Patterns and Risk Factors for Newcastle Disease Virus among Chickens in a Tanzania Live Bird Market.

Village poultry plays a vital role in providing essential nutrition and income for rural communities in Africa. In this context, poultry are often traded through live bird markets (LBMs), which serve as central trading hubs where producers connect with traders and consumers, facilitating the flow of poultry products along the value chain. While they serve as important trading hubs, these markets create an environment where avian pathogens, like Newcastle disease virus (NDV) and avian influenza virus, can easily emerge and spread. Improving our understanding of the epidemiology of NDV in LBMs is important for assessing disease risks and identifying factors that contribute to its persistence. Local chickens at the Mawenzi LBM in Morogoro municipality were surveyed for NDV presence, its temporal and spatial distribution, and risk factors for NDV infection. Twenty-three percent of 659 local chickens sampled over a 1-year period were positive for NDV based on PCR. Increased odds of NDV infection were identified in chickens that had been in the market for 2 or more days prior to sampling and during the period extending from August through October. Four significant spatiotemporal clusters of NDV-positive chickens encompassing 13 villages were detected between August and October 2020, illustrating geographic hotspots of infection when NDV was most prevalent. Similar to the other LBMs, this market had enclosures with high densities of birds of mixed species, limited biosecurity, and the presence of birds with observable illness. Bird traders who source the chickens from the villages, described long transit times in mixed enclosures with limited sanitation practices and without consideration of sick birds or vaccination status prior to arriving at the LBM. This study highlights the need to invest in improvements to infrastructure and biosecurity for LBMs as well as training opportunities for increasing traders' knowledge on hygiene and sanitation practices, animal welfare, and poultry biosecurity measures.