Evidence mapPaperPMID 40313308Full record

ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2025

Age-specific trends in colorectal, appendiceal, and anal tumour incidence by histological subtype in Australia from 1990 to 2020: a population-based time-series analysis.

Aaron L Meyers, James G Dowty, Khalid Mahmood, Finlay A Macrae, Christophe Rosty, Daniel D Buchanan, Mark A Jenkins

Abstract readPreprint
In one paragraph

Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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0citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Aaron L MeyersCentre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
James G DowtyCentre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
Khalid MahmoodCollaborative Centre for Genomic Cancer Medicine, Victorian Comprehensive Cancer Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Finlay A MacraeColorectal Medicine and Genetics, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
Christophe RostyCollaborative Centre for Genomic Cancer Medicine, Victorian Comprehensive Cancer Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Daniel D BuchananCollaborative Centre for Genomic Cancer Medicine, Victorian Comprehensive Cancer Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Mark A JenkinsCentre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.

Funding

Colon Cancer Family Registry CohortU01CA167551 · UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE · 2025 to 2025
$1.8M
NCI NIH HHS U01 CA167551
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Early-onset bowel cancer incidence (age <50 years) has increased worldwide and is highest in Australia, but how this varies across histology and anatomical site remains unclear. We aimed to investigate appendiceal, proximal colon, distal colon, rectal, and anal cancer incidence trends by age and histology in Australia. Methods: Cancer incidence rate data were obtained from all Australian cancer registries (1990-2020 period). Birth cohort-specific incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and annual percentage change in rates were estimated using age-period-cohort modelling and joinpoint regression. Findings: After excluding neuroendocrine neoplasms, early-onset cancer incidence rose 5-9% annually, yielding 5,341 excess cases (2 per 100,000 person-years; 12% appendix, 45% colon, 36% rectum, 7% anus; 20-214% relative increase). Trends varied by site, period, and age: appendiceal cancer rose from 1990-2020 in 30-49-year-olds; colorectal cancers rose from around 1990-2010 in 20-29-year-olds and from 2010-2020 in 30-39-year-olds; anal cancer rose from 1990-2009 in 40-49-year-olds. Across all sites, IRRs increased with successive birth cohorts since 1960. Notably, adenocarcinoma incidence in the 1990s versus 1950s birth cohort was 2-3-fold for colorectum and 7-fold for appendix. The greatest subtype-specific increases occurred for appendiceal mucinous adenocarcinoma, colorectal non-mucinous adenocarcinoma, and anal squamous cell carcinoma. Only later-onset (age ≥50) colorectal and anal adenocarcinoma rates declined. Appendiceal tumours, neuroendocrine neoplasms (all sites), anorectal squamous cell carcinomas, and colon signet ring cell carcinomas rose across early-onset and later-onset strata. Interpretation: Appendiceal, colorectal, and anal cancer incidence is rising in Australia with variation across age and histology, underscoring the need to identify factors driving these trends. Funding: ALM is supported by an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship, Rowden White Scholarship, and WP Greene Scholarship. DDB is supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (NHMRC) Investigator grant (GNT1194896), a University of Melbourne Dame Kate Campbell Fellowship, and by funding awarded to The Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR, www.coloncfr.org) from the National Cancer Institute (NCI), National Institutes of Health (NIH) [award U01 CA167551]. MAJ is supported by an NHMRC Investigator grant (GNT1195099), a University of Melbourne Dame Kate Campbell Fellowship, and by funding awarded to the CCFR from NCI, NIH [award U01 CA167551].

Indexed as

Anal CancerAppendiceal cancerColorectal cancerEarly onsetHistological subtypeIncidence

Identifiers

PMID40313308
PMCPMC12045447

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-ND
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.