Machine Learning Clinical Decision Support for Interdisciplinary Multimodal Chronic Musculoskeletal Pain Treatment: Prospective Pilot Study of Patient Assessment and Prognostic Profile Validation.

Background: Chronic musculoskeletal pain (CMP) impacts around 20% of people globally, resulting in patients living with pain, fatigue, restricted social and employment capacity, and reduced quality of life. Interdisciplinary multimodal pain treatment (IMPT) programs have been shown to provide positive and sustained outcomes where all other interventions have failed. IMPT programs combined with multidimensional machine learning predictive patient profiles aim to improve clinical decision support and personalized patient assessments, potentially leading to better treatment outcomes. Objective: We aimed to investigate integrating machine learning with IMPT programs and its potential contribution to clinical decision support and treatment outcomes for patients with CMP. Methods: This prospective pilot study used a machine learning prognostic patient profile of 7 outcome measures across 4 clinically relevant domains, including activity or disability, pain, fatigue, and quality of life. Prognostic profiles were created for new IMPT patients in the Netherlands in November 2023 (N=17). New summary indicators were developed, including defined categories for positive, negative, and mixed prognostic profiles; an accuracy indicator with high, medium, and low levels based on weighted true- or false-positive values; and an indicator for consistently positive or negative outcomes. The consolidated reporting guidelines checklist for prognostic machine learning modeling studies was completed to provide transparency of data quality, model development methodology, and validation. Results: The machine learning IMPT prognostic patient profiles demonstrated high accuracy and consistency in predicting patient outcomes. The profile, combined with extended new prognostic summary indicators, provided improved identification of patients with predicted positive, negative, and mixed outcomes, supporting more comprehensive assessment. Overall, 82.4% (14/17) of prognostic patient profiles were consistent with clinician assessments. Notably, clinician case notes indicated the stratified prognostic profiles were directly discussed with around half (8/17, 47.1%) of patients. Clinicians found the prognostic patient profiles helpful in 88.2% (15/17) of initial IMPT assessments to support shared clinician and patient decision-making and discussion of individualized treatment planning. Conclusions: Machine learning prognostic patient profiles showed promising contributions for IMPT clinical decision support and improving treatment outcomes for patients with CMP. Further research is needed to validate these findings in larger, more diverse populations.