Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40360496›Full record

ArticleNature communications2025

A protein language model for exploring viral fitness landscapes.

Jumpei Ito, Adam Strange, Wei Liu, Gustav Joas, Spyros Lytras, Genotype to Phenotype Japan (G2P-Japan) Consortium, Kei Sato

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
27citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

27 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
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  15. Artificial intelligence directed computational protein design: lessons from COVID-19 for pandemic-ready vaccines and antibody therapeutics.Journal of pharmacy & pharmaceutical sciences : a publication of the Canadian Society for Pharmaceutical Sciences, Societe canadienne des sciences pharmaceutiques · 2026
    Review
  16. Protein Language Models in Virology: A Review of Advances and Applications.Methods in molecular biology (Clifton, N.J.) · 2026
    Review
  17. Constrained Evolutionary Funnels Shape Viral Immune Escape.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025
    Article
  18. Review
  19. Article
  20. Predicting high-fitness viral protein variants with Bayesian active learning and biophysics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Jumpei ItoDivision of Systems Virology, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The Institute of Medical Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. jampei@g.ecc.u-tokyo.ac.jp.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0440-8321
Adam StrangeDivision of Systems Virology, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The Institute of Medical Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Wei Liu *Division of Systems Virology, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The Institute of Medical Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0008-7431-9950
Gustav Joas *Division of Systems Virology, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The Institute of Medical Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0003-1817-3356
Spyros LytrasDivision of Systems Virology, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The Institute of Medical Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4202-6682
Genotype to Phenotype Japan (G2P-Japan) Consortium
Kei SatoDivision of Systems Virology, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The Institute of Medical Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. KeiSato@g.ecc.u-tokyo.ac.jp.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4431-1380

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Successively emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants lead to repeated epidemic surges through escalated fitness (i.e., relative effective reproduction number between variants). Modeling the genotype-fitness relationship enables us to pinpoint the mutations boosting viral fitness and flag high-risk variants immediately after their detection. Here, we present CoVFit, a protein language model adapted from ESM-2, designed to predict variant fitness based solely on spike protein sequences. CoVFit was trained on genotype-fitness data derived from viral genome surveillance and functional mutation assays related to immune evasion. CoVFit successively ranked the fitness of unknown future variants harboring nearly 15 mutations with informative accuracy. CoVFit identified 959 fitness elevation events throughout SARS-CoV-2 evolution until late 2023. Furthermore, we show that CoVFit is applicable for predicting viral evolution through single amino acid mutations. Our study gives insight into the SARS-CoV-2 fitness landscape and provides a tool for efficiently identifying SARS-CoV-2 variants with higher epidemic risk.

Indexed as

COVID-19Genetic FitnessSARS-CoV-2Spike Glycoprotein, CoronavirusEvolution, MolecularGenome, ViralGenotypeHumansMutationSpike Glycoprotein, Coronavirusspike protein, SARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID40360496
PMCPMC12075601

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.