Evidence mapPaperPMID 40375461Full record

ArticleChinese medical journal2025

Incidence, prevalence, and burden of type 2 diabetes in China: Trend and projection from 1990 to 2050.

Haojie Zhang, Qingyi Jia, Peige Song, Yongze Li, Lihua Jiang, Xianghui Fu, Sheyu Li

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Chinese medical journal, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Cognitive Behavioral Interventions for Children and Adolescents With Overweight or Obesity: A Systematic Review and Component Network Meta-Analysis.Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity · 2026
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  12. Sleep Disturbance in Adults with Type 2 Diabetes: Psychosocial Factors Across Anxiety Symptom Groups.Diabetes, metabolic syndrome and obesity : targets and therapy · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Haojie ZhangDepartment of Endocrinology and Metabolism, MAGIC China Centre, Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China.
Qingyi JiaInstitute of Metabolic Diseases and Pharmacotherapy, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China.
Peige SongSchool of Public Health and Women's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310058, China.
Yongze LiDepartment of Endocrinology and Metabolism and the Institute of Endocrinology, NHC Key Laboratory of Diagnosis and Treatment of Thyroid Diseases, First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110001, China.
Lihua JiangTeaching & Research Section of General Practice, The General Practice Medical Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China.
Xianghui FuDivision of Endocrinology and Metabolism, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatrics, State Key Laboratory of Biotherapy and Cancer Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University and Collaborative Innovation Center of Biotherapy, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China.
Sheyu LiDepartment of Endocrinology and Metabolism, MAGIC China Centre, Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe epidemiological pattern and disease burden of type 2 diabetes have been shifting in China over the past decades. This analysis described the epidemiological transition of type 2 diabetes in the past three decades and projected the trend in the future three decades in China.

methodsAge-, sex-, and year-specific incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for people with 15 years or older and diabetes or high fasting glucose in China and related countries from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease. We obtained the trends of age-, sex-, and year-specific rates and absolute numbers of incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs attributable to type 2 diabetes in China from 1990 to 2021. Using the Lee-Carter model, we projected the incidence, prevalence, death, and DALYs attributable to type 2 diabetes to 2050 stratified by age and sex.

resultsThe age-standardized incidence of type 2 diabetes was 341.5 per 100,000 persons (1.6 times in 1990) and the age-standardized prevalence was 9.96% (9960.0 per 100,000 persons, 2.5 times in 1990) in China 2021. In 2021, there were 0.9 million deaths and 26.8 million DALYs due to type 2 diabetes or hyperglycemia, as 2.9 and 2.7 times the data in 1990, respectively. The age-standardized rates of type 2 diabetes and hyperglycemia were projected to raise to 449.5 per 100,000 persons for incidence, 18.17% for prevalence, 244.6 per 100,000 persons for death, and 4720.2 per 100,000 persons for DALYs by 2050. The incidence of type 2 diabetes kept growing among individuals under the age of 20 years in the past three decades (128.7 per 100,000 persons in 1990 and 439.9 per 100,000 persons in 2021) and estimating 1870.8 per 100,000 in 2050.

conclusionsThe incidence, prevalence, and disease burden of type 2 diabetes grew rapidly in China in the past three decades. The prevention of type 2 diabetes in young people and the care for elder adults will be the greatest challenge for the country.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2AdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overChinaDisability-Adjusted Life YearsFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedPrevalenceYoung AdultBurdenDeathDisability-adjusted life yearsIncidencePrevalenceProjectionsType 2 diabetes

Identifiers

PMID40375461
PMCPMC12180826

What Socratic holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.