Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40412399›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet. Global health2025

Changes in incidence of HPV-related cancers in South Africa (2011-21): a cross-sectional analysis of the South African National Cancer Registry.

Jaimie Z Shing, Sizeka Mashele, Adino T Tsegaye, Bianca Da Costa Dias, Eric A Engels, Admire Chikandiwa, Meredith S Shiels, Judith Mwansa-Kambafwile, Erica S Stephens, Carole Metekoua and 4 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet. Global health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Jaimie Z ShingDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, USA. Electronic address: jaimie.shing@nih.gov.
Sizeka MasheleNational Cancer Registry, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
Adino T TsegayeDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, USA.
Bianca Da Costa DiasCentre for HIV and STIs, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Eric A EngelsDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, USA.
Admire ChikandiwaDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; Infectious Disease and Oncology Research Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Meredith S ShielsDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, USA.
Judith Mwansa-KambafwileNational Cancer Registry, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa; School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; School of Public Health, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Erica S StephensDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, USA.
Carole MetekouaNational Cancer Registry, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Danping LiuDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, USA.
Loretto J CarvajalDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, USA; Agencia Costarricense de Investigaciones Biomédicas, Fundación INCIENSA, San José, Costa Rica.
Aimée R KreimerDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, USA.
Mazvita MuchengetiNational Cancer Registry, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.

Funding

Intramural NIH HHS Z99 CA999999
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundUnderstanding human papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancer epidemiology in South Africa is crucial for informing cancer prevention in this high-burden country. We aimed to describe HPV-related cancer incidence in South Africa between 2011 and 2021.

methodsFor this cross-sectional study, we obtained data on cancer incidence from the South African National Cancer Registry and population estimates from Statistics South Africa. We calculated age-standardised incidence per 100 000 person-years for cervical carcinoma, and vulvar, vaginal, penile, oropharyngeal, and anal squamous cell carcinoma among people aged 15 years and older by sex, year, age, and race. Average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program.

findingsBetween Jan 1, 2011 and Dec 31, 2021, the overall cervical carcinoma incidence was 30·4 cases per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 30·2 to 30·6), which was highest in females aged 55-64 years (58·5 cases per 100 000 person-years [57·5 to 59·5]); incidence was stable between 2011 and 2016 and began to decline in 2016 (AAPC -2·7% [95% CI -10·8 to -0·2]). The incidence of vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (2·3 cases per 100 000 person-years [2·2 to 2·4]), vaginal squamous cell carcinoma (0·7 cases per 100 000 person-years [0·7 to 0·7]), and female-anal squamous cell carcinoma (0·6 cases per 100 000 person-years [0·6 to 0·7]) increased between 2011 and 2021 (AAPC 8·0% [95% CI 5·3 to 13·9] for vulvar squamous cell carcinoma; 3·2% [0·5 to 6·6] for vaginal squamous cell carcinoma; and 8·5% [2·0 to 23·2] for anal squamous cell carcinoma). The largest increase in vulvar squamous cell carcinoma between 2011 and 2021 was observed among females aged 15-44 years (AAPC 10·0% [8·2 to 13·4]) and 45-54 years (AAPC 10·7% [8·2 to 14·1]). The incidence of penile squamous cell carcinoma (1·4 cases per 10 000 person-years [1·3 to 1·4]) and anal squamous cell carcinoma in males (0·4 cases per 100 000 person-years [0·4 to 0·5]) increased between 2011 and 2021 (AAPC 6·9% [3·8 to 10·7] for penile squamous cell carcinoma; 9·3% [6·7 to 12·7] for anal squamous cell carcinoma). For both sexes, oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma trends were stable. The incidence of cervical carcinoma, vulvar squamous cell carcinoma, and vaginal squamous cell carcinoma was highest among Black females; penile squamous cell carcinoma was highest among Black males; anal squamous cell carcinoma in males was similar by race; and oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma was highest among White and Coloured individuals.

interpretationThe incidence of non-cervical anogenital cancers is rapidly increasing in South Africa. The incidence of most HPV-related cancers is high among Black individuals, especially for cervical and vulvar cancers, potentially due to disproportionately high HPV-HIV co-infection prevalence among young Black females. HIV prevention and continued HPV vaccination efforts are crucial for reducing HPV-driven cancers in the future.

fundingSouth African National Health Laboratory Services and US National Cancer Institute Intramural Research Program.

Indexed as

NeoplasmsPapillomavirus InfectionsAdolescentAdultAgedCarcinoma, Squamous CellCross-Sectional StudiesFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedPenile NeoplasmsRegistriesSouth AfricaUterine Cervical Neoplasms

Identifiers

PMID40412399
PMCPMC12366449

What Socratic holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.