Evidence mapPaperPMID 40413433Full record

ArticleBMC pediatrics2025

Global burden of pediatric fracture (1992-2021) and projections of future disease burden trends.

Xiaohao Hu, Xiaocong Lin, Zhangsheng Dai, Kaibin Fang

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Article in BMC pediatrics, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

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6citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Temporal trend of pediatric fracture epidemiology in Thailand: a nationwide study 2018-2024.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2026
    Article
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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Xiaohao HuDepartment of Pediatrics, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Quanzhou, 362000, China.
Xiaocong LinDepartment of Sports Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Quanzhou, 362000, China.
Zhangsheng DaiDepartment of Sports Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Quanzhou, 362000, China.
Kaibin FangDepartment of Sports Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Quanzhou, 362000, China. cffkb00@fjmu.edu.cn.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivePediatric fracture are a significant public health concern, contributing to both immediate health impacts and long-term disability. This study aims to quantify the burden of pediatric fracture over a 30-year period (1992-2021) and provide forecasts for future disease burden.

methodsComprehensive data on pediatric fracture from 1992 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study. This dataset includes information on the incidence of pediatric fracture, disaggregated by gender. The Joinpoint regression model was used to identify turning points in epidemiological trends, while decomposition analysis helped identify the factors driving these trends. Health inequalities related to pediatric fracture were assessed using the Slope Index and Concentration Index. To forecast future incidence rates, the Norpred and BAPC models were applied.

resultsThe global ASIR of pediatric fracture was 2225.38 in 1992 and 1531.44 in 2021. The total number of pediatric fracture globally was 39,436,228 in 1992 and 31,033,294 in 2021. The results of the Joinpoint regression indicate a declining trend in the incidence of pediatric fracture globally and in all SDI regions, for both male and female children. Based on the Nordpred and BAPC model, the predicted age-standardized incidence rate for pediatric fracture by 2046 is 1347.61-1349.43. The total number of pediatric fracture predicted by 2046 is 25,048,299-25,123,204.

conclusionOver the past three decades, the global incidence of pediatric fractures has declined. However, population growth has sustained a substantial disease burden, underscoring the necessity for effective prevention and management strategies.

Indexed as

Cost of IllnessFractures, BoneAdolescentChildChild, PreschoolFemaleForecastingGlobal Burden of DiseaseGlobal HealthHumansIncidenceInfantInfant, NewbornMaleSex DistributionAge standardized incidence rateDisease burdenHealth inequalityPediatric fracture

Identifiers

PMID40413433
PMCPMC12102943

What Socratic holds

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.