Evidence mapPaperPMID 40427148Full record

ArticleCancers2025

Improving Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Using Machine Learning: A Comparative Analysis of Stacking Models and Traditional Approaches.

Huakang Tu, Yunfeng Zhao, Jiameng Cui, Wanzhu Lu, Gege Sun, Xiaohang Xu, Qingfeng Hu, Kejia Hu, Ming Wu, Xifeng Wu

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Cancers, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Risk prediction for lung cancer screening: a systematic review and meta-regression.European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2026
    Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Huakang TuCenter of Clinical Big Data and Analytics of the Second Affiliated Hospital and School of Public Health, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China.
Yunfeng ZhaoCenter of Clinical Big Data and Analytics of the Second Affiliated Hospital and School of Public Health, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China.
Jiameng CuiCenter of Clinical Big Data and Analytics of the Second Affiliated Hospital and School of Public Health, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China.ORCID 0000-0002-7902-5942
Wanzhu LuCenter of Clinical Big Data and Analytics of the Second Affiliated Hospital and School of Public Health, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China.
Gege SunCenter of Clinical Big Data and Analytics of the Second Affiliated Hospital and School of Public Health, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China.
Xiaohang XuCenter of Clinical Big Data and Analytics of the Second Affiliated Hospital and School of Public Health, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China.
Qingfeng HuCenter of Clinical Big Data and Analytics of the Second Affiliated Hospital and School of Public Health, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China.
Kejia HuCenter of Clinical Big Data and Analytics of the Second Affiliated Hospital and School of Public Health, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China.ORCID 0000-0002-1175-3580
Ming WuDepartment of Thoracic Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, 88 Jiefang Rd., Hangzhou 310009, China.ORCID 0000-0002-1009-5387
Xifeng WuCenter of Clinical Big Data and Analytics of the Second Affiliated Hospital and School of Public Health, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China.ORCID 0000-0003-2980-8129

Funding

Healthy Zhejiang One Million Cohort K20230085Key Research and Development Program of Zhejiang Province 2020C03002Leading Innovative and Entrepreneur Team Introduction Program of Zhejiang 2019R01007
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundLung cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide, often diagnosed in advanced stages, making early detection critical. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of various machine learning models in predicting lung cancer risk based on epidemiological questionnaires, comparing them with traditional logistic regression models.

methodsA retrospective case-control study was conducted using data from 5421 lung cancer cases and 10,831 matched controls. The dataset included a wide range of demographic, clinical, and behavioral risk factors from epidemiological questionnaires. We developed and compared multiple machine learning algorithms, including LightGBM and stacking ensemble models, alongside logistic regression for predicting lung cancer risk. Model performance was evaluated using accuracy, area under the curve (AUC), and recall.

resultsThe stacking model outperformed traditional logistic regression, achieving an AUC of 0.887 (0.870-0.903) compared to 0.858 (0.839-0.878) for logistic regression. LightGBM also performed well, with an AUC of 0.884 (0.867-0.901). The stacking model achieved an accuracy of 81.2%, with a recall of 0.755, higher than the logistic regression model's accuracy of 79.4%. Compared to classical lung cancer prediction models (LLP and PLCO), the logistic regression and ML models improved AUC by 12% to 27%.

conclusionsIntegrating machine learning models into lung cancer screening programs can significantly enhance early detection efforts. Machine learning approaches, such as LightGBM and stacking, offer improved accuracy and predictive power over traditional models. However, efforts to enhance model interpretability through explainable AI techniques are necessary for broader clinical adoption.

Indexed as

artificial intelligencelung cancermachine learningpredictionstacking models

Identifiers

PMID40427148
PMCPMC12109916

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.