ArticleHealthcare (Basel, Switzerland)2025
Age-Period-Cohort Analysis on the Burden of Gastrointestinal Cancers in China: Trends, Risk Factors, and Predictions.
Article in Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Unraveling colorectal cancer incidence dynamics in Hong Kong 1983-2032 through age-period-cohort Bayesian projection and decomposition analysis.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026Article
- The multifaceted roles of mesenchymal stem cell-derived exosomes in digestive system malignancies: mechanisms and therapeutic implications.Frontiers in cell and developmental biology · 2026Review
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6 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundGastrointestinal cancer imposes a heavy public health burden worldwide. The six major subtypes of GI cancer cases accounted for over a quarter of the total cancer cases in China. We examined and predicted the amount and trend of the burden of gastrointestinal cancer in China.
methodsWe collected the crude incidence rate (CIR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), crude DALY rate, age-standardized DALY rate, crude death rate (CDR), and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) by gender, age, and risk factors from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database, covering the period from 1990 to 2021. We used an age-period-cohort (APC) model to calculate the age, period, and cohort effects separately and a Bayesian APC model to predict the epidemiological trends and the age-specific incidence.
resultsIn 2021, 1,957,948 incidence cases of gastrointestinal cancers were estimated in China, with an incidence rate of 137.62 per 100,000. The burden was notably higher for males, with tobacco use accounting for 26.48% of male GI cancer DALYs versus dietary risks (13.22%) being predominant in females. Metabolic risk factors showed concerning growth trends, with high fasting plasma glucose increasing by 166.06% in males and 275.72% in females. The age-period-cohort analysis revealed peak incidence at advanced ages (>80 years) for most GI cancers. By 2050, China's gastrointestinal cancer burden is projected to increase substantially, with total cases reaching 2.92 (95% CI: 2.27, 3.77) million (49.06% increase) and crude incidence rate rising to 230.51 (95% CI: 178.98, 298.03) per 100,000 (a 67.49% increase), predominantly driven by colorectal cancer (41.74%) and stomach cancer (21.47%). While crude incidence rates show consistent increases across all GI cancers, particularly in males, age-standardized incidence rates are predicted to decrease for most cancer types except for male colorectal and biliary tract cancers.
conclusionsThe burden of gastrointestinal cancer in China is growing rapidly and will continue to increase. The performance of ASIR indicated that population aging is a potential driver of the increasing burden. Cancer control policies should focus on older people. It is critical to distinguish prevention strategies by gender and age according to the major risk factors.
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