Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40465422›Full record

ArticleDiabetes care2025

Risk of Thyroid Tumors With GLP-1 Receptor Agonists: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Daniel R Morales, Fan Bu, Benjamin Viernes, Scott L DuVall, Michael E Matheny, Katherine R Simon, Thomas Falconer, Lauren R Richter, Anna Ostropolets, Wallis C Y Lau and 21 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Diabetes care, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  3. Exposure to GLP-1RA and Risk of Structural Progression in Differentiated Thyroid Cancer.The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism · 2026
    Observational
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

31 authors.

Daniel R MoralesDivision of Population Health and Genomics, School of Medicine, University of Dundee, Dundee, U.K.ORCID 0000-0002-0063-8069
Fan BuDepartment of Biostatistics, University of Michigan at Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI.
Benjamin ViernesVeterans Affairs Informatics and Computing Infrastructure Department of Veterans Affairs, Salt Lake City, UT.
Scott L DuVallVeterans Affairs Informatics and Computing Infrastructure Department of Veterans Affairs, Salt Lake City, UT.
Michael E MathenyTennessee Valley Healthcare System, Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Nashville, TN.
Katherine R SimonTennessee Valley Healthcare System, Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Nashville, TN.
Thomas FalconerDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY.
Lauren R RichterDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY.
Anna OstropoletsDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY.
Wallis C Y LauCentre for Safe Medication Practice and Research, Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Kenneth K C ManCentre for Safe Medication Practice and Research, Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Shounak ChattopadhyayDepartment of Biostatistics, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, CA.
Nestoras MathioudakisDivision of Endocrinology, Diabetes, and Metabolism, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD.ORCID 0000-0002-0210-655X
Evan MintyFaculty of Medicine, O'Brien Institute for Public Health, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
Akihiko NishimuraDepartment of Biostatistics, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD.
Feng SunDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Peking University, Beijing, China.ORCID 0000-0003-4334-6805
Can YinDTA&AI, Real World Solutions, IQVIA, Durham, NC.
Sarah L SeagerDTA&AI, Real World Solutions, IQVIA, Durham, NC.
Yi ChaiCentre for Safe Medication Practice and Research, Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Jin J ZhouDepartment of Biostatistics, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, CA.
Yuan LuSection of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, CT.
Carlen ReyesReal-World Epidemiology Research Group, Fundaci Institut Universitari per a la recerca a l'Atenci Primria de Salut Jordi Gol i Gurina, Barcelona, Spain.ORCID 0000-0001-8486-3265
Andrea PistilloReal-World Epidemiology Research Group, Fundaci Institut Universitari per a la recerca a l'Atenci Primria de Salut Jordi Gol i Gurina, Barcelona, Spain.
Talita Duarte-SallesReal-World Epidemiology Research Group, Fundaci Institut Universitari per a la recerca a l'Atenci Primria de Salut Jordi Gol i Gurina, Barcelona, Spain.
Clair BlacketerObservational Health Data Analytics, Janssen Research and Development, LLC, Titusville, NJ.
Martijn J SchuemieDepartment of Biostatistics, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, CA.
Patrick B RyanDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY.
Harlan M KrumholzSection of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, CT.
George HripcsakDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY.
Rohan KheraSection of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, CT.ORCID 0000-0001-9467-6199
Marc A SuchardVeterans Affairs Informatics and Computing Infrastructure Department of Veterans Affairs, Salt Lake City, UT.

Funding

DISCOVERING AND APPLYING KNOWLEDGE IN CLINICAL DATABASESR01LM006910 · NLM · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI HRIPCSAK, GEORGE M · 2000 to 2023
$10.6M
Genomics, GPUs, and Next Generation Computational StatisticsR01HG006139 · NHGRI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI SOBEL, ERIC · 2011 to 2023
$5.1M
Real-world Evidence to Inform Decisions for Hypertension Treatment EscalationR01HL169954 · NHLBI · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI Yuan Lu · 2023 to 2026
$2.6M
Evaluating and Improving Utilization of Evidence-Based Medical Therapy in Patients with Heart Failure using Automated Tools in the Electronic Health RecordK23HL153775 · NHLBI · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI KHERA, ROHAN · 2021 to 2025
$918k
NHGRI NIH HHS R01 HG006139NHLBI NIH HHS K23 HL153775NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL169954NIH HHS K23 HL153775NIH HHS R01 HG006139NIH HHS R01 HL169954NIH HHS R01 LM006910NLM NIH HHS R01 LM006910US Department of Veterans Affairs ORD 22-D4V
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo assess the association between glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) use and risk of incident thyroid tumors. RESEARCH DESIGN AND

methodsThe retrospective, active-comparator new-user cohort study used international administrative claims and electronic health record databases. Participants included patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) with prior metformin therapy initiating a GLP-1RA versus new users of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is), dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors (DPP-4is), and sulfonylureas (SUs). The outcome was incident thyroid tumor and thyroid malignancy. Propensity score matching and stratification were used to adjust for confounders with an intention-to-treat and on-treatment strategy. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Unmeasured confounding was evaluated using negative outcomes, with calibration of the HR.

resultsA total of 460,032 users of GLP-1RAs, 717,792 users of SGLT2is, 2,055,583 users of DPP-4is, and 1,119,868 users of SUs were included. Only U.S. cohorts passed study diagnostics. Thyroid tumor incidence ranged from 0.88 to 1.03 per 1,000 person-years in GLP-1RA cohorts. GLP-1RA exposure was not associated with an increased risk of thyroid tumors compared with SGLT2is, DPP-4is, or SUs (meta-analysis: GLP-1RA vs. SGLT2i HR range from 0.83 [95% CI 0.57-1.27] to 0.95 [0.85-1.06]; GLP-1RA vs. SU HR range from 0.95 [0.75-1.20] to 1.03 [0.87-1.23]; GLP-1RA vs. DPP-4i HR range from 0.78 [0.60-1.01] to 0.93 [0.83-1.04]). Analysis using thyroid malignancy and including a 1-year lag period produced similar conclusions.

conclusionsIn patients with T2DM initiating second-line treatments, we observed no increased risk of thyroid tumors with GLP-1RA exposure.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor AgonistsHypoglycemic AgentsThyroid NeoplasmsAgedDipeptidyl-Peptidase IV InhibitorsFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedRetrospective StudiesSodium-Glucose Transporter 2 InhibitorsDipeptidyl-Peptidase IV InhibitorsGlucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor AgonistsHypoglycemic AgentsSodium-Glucose Transporter 2 Inhibitors

Identifiers

PMID40465422
PMCPMC12281980

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.