Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40475698›Full record

ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2025

Real-time inference of the end of an outbreak: Temporally aggregated disease incidence data and under-reporting.

I Ogi-Gittins, J Polonsky, M Keita, S Ahuka-Mundeke, W S Hart, M J Plank, B Lambert, E M Hill, R N Thompson

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

I Ogi-GittinsMathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
J PolonskyGeneva Centre of Humanitarian Studies, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.
M KeitaWorld Health Organization, Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Republic of the Congo.
S Ahuka-MundekeNational Institute of Biomedical Research, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
W S HartMathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
M J PlankSchool of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.
B LambertDepartment of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
E M HillCivic Health Innovation Labs and Institute of Population Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
R N ThompsonMathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Funding

World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Professor Pierre Magal made important contributions to the field of mathematical biology before his death on February 20, 2024, including research in which epidemiological models were used to study the ends of infectious disease outbreaks. In related work, there has been interest in inferring (in real-time) when outbreaks have ended and control interventions can be relaxed. Here, we analyse data from the 2018 Ebola outbreak in Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, during which an Ebola Response Team (ERT) was deployed to implement public health measures. We use a renewal equation transmission model to perform a

Indexed as

Ebola virus diseaseEnd-of-outbreak probabilityEpidemic modellingInterventionsRenewal equation

Identifiers

PMID40475698
PMCPMC12138552

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.