Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40511537›Full record

ArticleESC heart failure2025

Atrial fibrillation and flutter as global drivers of heart failure: Burden and longitudinal trends over three decades.

Yabin Liu, Jingsi Duan, Yue Wang, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Mengying Huang, Huimin Chen, Haijiang Dai, Cheng Ni

Abstract readMulticenter Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in ESC heart failure, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Yabin LiuDepartment of Cardiology, The Second Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
Jingsi DuanDepartment of Cardiology, The Second Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
Yue WangDepartment of Cardiology, People's Hospital of Haixi Autonomous Prefecture, Delingha, Qinghai, China.
Nicola Luigi BragazziHuman Nutrition Unit (HNU), Department of Food and Drugs Medical School, University of Parma, Parma, Italy.
Mengying HuangDepartment of Cardiology, The Second Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
Huimin ChenDepartment of Cardiology, The Second Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
Haijiang DaiDepartment of Cardiology, The Second Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5595-8000
Cheng NiDepartment of Cardiology, The Second Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.

Funding

Zhejiang Provincial Medical and Health Science and Technology Project 2025KY862
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimsThe study aims to comprehensively evaluate the global burden of heart failure attributable to atrial fibrillation (AF) and atrial flutter (AFL) from 1990 to 2021.

methodsUsing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we estimated the prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) of heart failure attributable to AF/AFL across 204 countries and territories. Estimates were stratified by age, sex and socio-demographic index (SDI). Age-standardized rates per 100 000 population were calculated, and percentage changes between 1990 and 2021 were analysed to assess temporal trends.

resultsIn 2021, AF/AFL were responsible for an estimated 714 137.5 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 520 543.5 to 940 900.6] heart failure cases and 63 942.8 (95% UI 39 057.9 to 96 196.5) YLDs globally. The age-standardized prevalence and YLD rates were 8.85 (95% UI 6.38 to 11.63) and 0.79 (95% UI 0.49 to 1.19) per 100 000 population, respectively. Between 1990 and 2021, global absolute numbers of heart failure cases and YLDs attributable to AF/AFL increased by 339.3% (95% UI 292.7 to 387.0) and 337.5% (95% UI 290.1 to 387.0), respectively. Age-standardized prevalence and YLD rates increased by 65.2% (95% UI 47.7 to 83.8) and 65.4% (95% UI 46.6 to 83.5), respectively. The burden progressively increased with age, peaking among individuals aged ≥95 years. Females experienced a higher burden than males from age 55 years onward, with the greatest disparity observed in the 85-89 years age group. High SDI regions, such as Australasia and Western Europe, exhibited the highest prevalence and YLD rates.

conclusionsThe global burden of heart failure attributable to AF/AFL increased substantially from 1990 to 2021, disproportionately affecting older adults, females aged 55 years and above and populations in high SDI regions. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted interventions and resource allocation to address the growing challenges, particularly for vulnerable groups.

Indexed as

Atrial FibrillationAtrial FlutterHeart FailureAdultAgedAged, 80 and overCost of IllnessFemaleFollow-Up StudiesGlobal Burden of DiseaseGlobal HealthHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrevalenceatrial fibrillation and flutterepidemiologyheart failureyears lived with disability

Identifiers

PMID40511537
PMCPMC12450823

What Socratic holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.