Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40513656›Full record

ArticleJournal of advanced research2026

Burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in China: a systematic analysis from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2050.

Jian Xu, Jingyu Liu, Xiaowei Li, Liang Zhao, Jianzhong Shen, Xi Xia

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of advanced research, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Jian XuNational Key Laboratory of Veterinary Public Health and Safety, College of Veterinary Medicine, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China.
Jingyu LiuNational Key Laboratory of Veterinary Public Health and Safety, College of Veterinary Medicine, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China.
Xiaowei LiNational Key Laboratory of Veterinary Public Health and Safety, College of Veterinary Medicine, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China.
Liang ZhaoNational Key Laboratory of Veterinary Public Health and Safety, College of Veterinary Medicine, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China.
Jianzhong ShenNational Key Laboratory of Veterinary Public Health and Safety, College of Veterinary Medicine, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China. Electronic address: sjz@cau.edu.cn.
Xi XiaNational Key Laboratory of Veterinary Public Health and Safety, College of Veterinary Medicine, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China. Electronic address: xxia@cau.edu.cn.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionAntimicrobial resistance (AMR) has emerged as a critical health challenge; however, there is a paucity of in-depth reports outlining its burden and trends in China.

objectivesThis study aimed to systematically assess the burden of bacterial AMR in China from 1990 to 2021 and project future trends up to 2050, providing critical insights for AMR control and policy-making.

methodsWe analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, encompassing 12 infectious syndromes, 64 pathogens (including 22 with AMR), and 84 pathogen-drug combinations. The burden was quantified by deaths and disability-adjusted life years under two counterfactual scenarios: those associated with AMR and those attributable to AMR. Trends were assessed using joinpoint regression analysis, and future projections up to 2050 were modeled using an autoregressive integrated moving average approach.

resultsIn 2021, AMR was attributable to approximately 160,268 (95% uncertainty intervals [UI]: 132,375-188,160) deaths in China, with up to 711,852 (95% UI: 586,447-837,256) fatalities associated with AMR. The most lethal infectious syndrome was bloodstream infections, with key pathogen-drug combinations including methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), carbapenem-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae, and carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii. Between 1990 and 2021, there was a substantial decrease in the burden among children under the age of five, primarily due to a decline in fatalities caused by carbapenem-resistant S. pneumoniae. In contrast, the burden increased among individuals aged 45 and older, with MRSA identified as the principal contributor. Projections indicate that by 2050, AMR could be associated with 769,432 deaths in China, of which 180,123 directly attributable to AMR.

conclusionOur findings provide a comprehensive evaluation of AMR burden in China, highlighting the urgent need for targeted interventions to prevent and control resistant infections, particularly among older adults.

Indexed as

Anti-Bacterial AgentsBacterial InfectionsDrug Resistance, BacterialAdolescentAdultAgedBacteriaChildChild, PreschoolChinaDisability-Adjusted Life YearsFemaleGlobal Burden of DiseaseHumansMaleMiddle AgedAnti-Bacterial AgentsAntimicrobial resistanceBurden of infectious diseasesDisability-adjusted life years

Identifiers

PMID40513656
PMCPMC12957829

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.