ArticleScientific reports2025
Incidence and predictors of type 2 diabetes mellitus in a population-based cohort study in Abu Dhabi.
Article in Scientific reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a global health burden. Monitoring its determinants and incidence trends is important for identifying risk factors and projecting future health service needs. The Abu Dhabi Risk Study (ADRS) is a retrospective cohort study of 8699 participants in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE), with an average follow-up period of 9.2 years. This study reports the prevalence of diabetes in this cohort, as well as the incidence of diabetes among the 6,772 participants who were diabetes-free at the start of the follow-up period in 2011-2013. Cox regression was used to develop a prediction model and identify significant determinants. Over the 12-year follow-up period, 643 individuals developed new diabetes, with an overall incidence of 7.4%. The prevalence of diabetes DM increased to 28.5%. Reaching 25.3% in females and 31.9% among males. Significant risk factors for developing new diabetes were a higher level of HBA1C, current smoking status at screening, and a higher level of eGFR. The model developed showed good performance in predicting new diabetes with a c-statistic of 0.837 (0.818-0.856), a sensitivity of 75.1%, and a specificity of 78.1%. Determinants of developing pre-DM included higher Diastolic Blood Pressure (DBP), total cholesterol, Random Blood Sugar (RBS), Body Mass Index (BMI), age, and lower High-Density Lipoprotein (HDL) levels. Gender and smoking status were not significant determinants for the diagnosis of prediabetes. The cumulative prevalence of prediabetes and diabetes is increasing steadily, with a plateau reached at 40 in the case of pre-DM and 60 with DM, and a decline with increasing age. The prevalence of diabetes in Abu Dhabi remains high. The Derived model is valuable for informing clinical practice and preventing diabetes.
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