ArticleBMC public health2025
Trends and projections of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer in China: a comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2030 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
Article in BMC public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Long-term effects of human development on the global burden of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer: a longitudinal multilevel analysis, 1990-2021.Gastroenterology and hepatology from bed to bench · 2026Article
- Impact of high sodium intake on stomach cancer burden in China: A comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2021.PloS one · 2026Article
- Impact of high fasting plasma glucose on liver cancer burden in China: a comprehensive analysis of trends from 1990 to 2021.Frontiers in nutrition · 2025Article
- Impact of metabolic risk factors on colorectal cancer burden in China: a comprehensive analysis of trends from 1990 to 2021.Frontiers in nutrition · 2025Article
- Health information quality of gallbladder cancer videos on TikTok and Bilibili in China: A cross-sectional content analysis.Digital healthArticle
- Behavioral Medicine in Cholangiocarcinoma: Bridging the Gap Between Biology and Behavior.Cancer control : journal of the Moffitt Cancer CenterReview
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Abstract
backgroundGallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) poses a growing public health challenge in China, with considerable disparities across age and sex. Understanding long-term epidemiological patterns is essential for informing cancer control strategies and future projections.
methodsData from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 were used to assess GBTC burden in China from 1990 to 2021. Indicators analyzed included incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs). Joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort (APC) analysis, decomposition analysis, and Bayesian APC (BAPC) models were employed to explore temporal trends and project future burden through 2030.
resultsIn 2021, China reported 51,720 new GBTC cases, with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 2.49 per 100,000. Males exhibited higher burden than females across all indicators. Incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs were highest in older age groups. From 1990 to 2021, China experienced increasing trends in incidence and prevalence, while age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) declined. Compared to global trends, China's ASIR rose while global rates declined. DALYs decreased in both contexts but more steeply globally. Joinpoint regression revealed sex-specific shifts, with males showing consistent increases in incidence and females experiencing periods of both decline and rise. APC analysis highlighted increasing incidence among post-1950 birth cohorts and decreasing mortality in recent cohorts. Decomposition analysis indicated that rising incidence was driven by epidemiological changes and population growth, while mortality reduction was linked to medical improvements. BAPC models projected a continued rise in incidence, particularly among males.
conclusionsThe burden of GBTC in China is rising, especially among men and older adults. While mortality has improved, incidence continues to grow, highlighting the need for targeted prevention, early detection, and gender-specific public health policies.
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