Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40646045›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2025

Rising temperatures contribute to West Nile virus diversification and increased transmission potential.

Rachel L Fay, Mauricio Cruz-Loya, Joseph G Maffei, Erin A Mordecai, Alexander T Ciota

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Review
  4. Review
  5. West Nile virus unmasked: from gene variability to future challenges.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2025
    Review
  6. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Rachel L FayDepartment of Biomedical Sciences, University at Albany College of Integrated Health Sciences, Rensselaer, NY, USA. rachellfay@gmail.com.
Mauricio Cruz-LoyaBiology Department, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Joseph G MaffeiThe Arbovirus Laboratory, Wadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health, Slingerlands, NY, USA.
Erin A MordecaiBiology Department, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Alexander T CiotaDepartment of Biomedical Sciences, University at Albany College of Integrated Health Sciences, Rensselaer, NY, USA.

Funding

The child health impacts of overlapping vector-borne diseases in KenyaR01AI102918 · NIAID · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI Angelle Desiree LaBeaud · 2013 to 2026
$7.7M
Leveraging environmental drivers to predict vector-borne disease transmissionR35GM133439 · NIGMS · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI Erin Mordecai · 2019 to 2026
$3.2M
Modeling the influence of temperature on the evolution of vector-virus interactionsR01AI168097 · NIAID · WADSWORTH CENTER · PI Alexander Timothy Ciota · 2022 to 2026
$2.4M
NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI102918NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI168097NIGMS NIH HHS R35 GM133439NIH HHS R01AI168097NSF DEB-2011147
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

West Nile virus (WNV), the most common mosquito-borne disease in the continental United States, is vectored by Culex spp. mosquitoes. Since its introduction to New York State (NYS) in 1999, WNV has become endemic. NYS temperatures have risen by 0.14 °C per decade since 1900, with larger increases linked to increased WNV transmission. In this study, we asked if increases in temperature in NYS influence virus diversification and adaptation, leading to shifts in thermal sensitivity. More specifically, do contemporary WNV strains have increased transmission potential at higher temperatures compared to historic strains? Using surveillance and sequencing data of WNV isolated from mosquitoes in NYS, we found a significant correlation between rising temperatures, increased WNV genetic diversity, and higher prevalence. We then analyzed genetically distinct WNV strains from mosquitoes collected during recent warm summers (2017 and 2018) and cooler historic summers (2003 and 2004). Assessing Culex pipiens dissemination efficiency and calculating the relative R₀ at 20 °C, 24 °C, and 28 °C, we found that contemporary strains exhibit higher transmission potential at increased temperatures. Our results show that contemporary WNV strains possess greater phenotypic and genotypic diversity, suggesting that climate warming in concert with viral adaptation may facilitate the emergence of strains with enhanced transmission potential.

Indexed as

CulexMosquito VectorsWest Nile FeverWest Nile virusAnimalsGenetic VariationNew YorkTemperatureAdaptationEvolutionTemperatureVector-borneWest Nile virus

Identifiers

PMID40646045
PMCPMC12254422

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.