Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40700491›Full record

ArticleScience advances2025

Assessing the risk of diseases with epidemic and pandemic potential in a changing world.

Angela Fanelli, Alessandro Cescatti, Juan-Carlos Ciscar, Gregoire Dubois, Dolores Ibarreta, Rachel Lowe, Nicola Riccetti, Marine Robuchon, Ilaria Capua, Wojtek Szewczyk and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science advances, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Strengthening mosquito control to manage emerging mosquito-borne diseases.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2026
    Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Review
  6. The Latino health experience: Past and future.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  7. Review
  8. Article
  9. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Angela FanelliEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) Scientific Development Programmes Unit, Ispra, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-8204-1230
Alessandro CescattiEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) Forests and Bio-Economy Unit, Ispra, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-2769-2591
Juan-Carlos CiscarEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) Economics of Climate Change, Energy, and Transport Unit, Seville, Spain.
Gregoire DuboisEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) Nature Conservation and Observations Unit, Ispra, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-0515-7168
Dolores IbarretaEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) Economics of Climate Change, Energy, and Transport Unit, Seville, Spain.ORCID 0009-0002-9669-5347
Rachel LoweBarcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain.ORCID 0000-0003-3939-7343
Nicola RiccettiEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) Scientific Development Programmes Unit, Ispra, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-3178-7892
Marine RobuchonEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) Nature Conservation and Observations Unit, Ispra, Italy.ORCID 0000-0001-5873-2915
Ilaria CapuaJohns Hopkins University SAIS Europe, Bologna, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-7072-2581
Wojtek SzewczykEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) Economics of Climate Change, Energy, and Transport Unit, Seville, Spain.
Emanuele MassaroEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) Forests and Bio-Economy Unit, Ispra, Italy.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

How do human activities contribute to the emergence of zoonotic diseases that can lead to epidemics and pandemics? Our analysis of common drivers of the World Health Organization's priority diseases suggests that climate conditions, including higher temperatures, higher annual precipitation levels, and water deficits, elevate the risk of disease outbreaks. In addition, land-use changes, human encroachment on forested areas, increased population and livestock density, and biodiversity loss contribute to this risk, with biodiversity loss showing a complex and nonlinear relationship. This study also presents a global risk map and an epidemic risk index that combines countries' specific risk with their capacities for preparing and responding to zoonotic threats.

Indexed as

EpidemicsPandemicsZoonosesAnimalsBiodiversityClimate ChangeGlobal HealthHumansRisk AssessmentWorld Health Organization

Identifiers

PMID40700491
PMCPMC12285694

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.