Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40708031›Full record

ArticleEuropean journal of medical research2025

Accurate forecasting in acute ischemic stroke: innovative nomogram models for early neurological deterioration and 90-day prognosis outcomes following intravenous thrombolysis.

Lai Wei, Xiang Zhou, Zhenyuan Zhou, Kangwei Zhang, Jinxi Meng, Xiyi Huang, Xiaoyan Wu, Peijun Wang

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In one paragraph

Article in European journal of medical research, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

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PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Lai Wei *Department of Medical Imaging, Tongji Hospital, School of Medicine, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200065, China.
Xiang Zhou *Department of Medical Imaging, Tongji Hospital, School of Medicine, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200065, China.
Zhenyuan Zhou *Department of Radiology, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 511300, China.
Kangwei ZhangDepartment of Medical Imaging, Tongji Hospital, School of Medicine, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200065, China.
Jinxi MengDepartment of Medical Imaging, Tongji Hospital, School of Medicine, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200065, China.
Xiyi HuangDepartment of Radiology, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 511300, China. kelvin.dr@163.com.
Xiaoyan WuDepartment of Neurology, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 511300, China. wxy8082@126.com.
Peijun WangDepartment of Medical Imaging, Tongji Hospital, School of Medicine, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200065, China. tongjipjwang1960@163.com.

Funding

Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China 2022YFC2009904National Natural Scientific Foundation of China 82227807Shanghai Municipal Health Commission 2022JC017
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeThis study aimed to develop novel nomogram models capable of predicting early neurological deterioration (END) and 90-day prognosis outcomes in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients treated with IV thrombolysis.

methodsA retrospective derivation cohort comprising 298 AIS patients was enrolled from January 2021 to March 2024. A separate validation cohort of 94 patients was retrospectively enrolled between April 2024 and December 2024. END was defined as a sustained NIHSS increase of ≥ 2 points within 24 h, and poor prognosis outcome a mRS score of 3-6 at 90 days. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was employed to construct nomogram models for the prediction of outcomes.

resultsIn the derivation cohort, 23.83% patients with END experienced a poor 90-day outcome, as compared to 12.42% of those from NO-END group. Independent risk factors for END included a lower initial NIHSS score, a delayed DNT, a reduced ASPECTS score, and incomplete Willis Artery. END patients were found to be at a significantly increased risk of poor 90-day prognosis (odds ratio 0.163, p < 0.001). In addition, elevated initial NIHSS and glucose levels, the presence of nonlacunar infarction, and history of hypertension were predictive of poor prognosis. Two separate nomogram models, developed based on the previously identified risk factors to predict the occurrence of END and a poor 90-day prognosis, demonstrated AUC values of 0.740 (95% CI 0.686-0.789) and 0.859 (95% CI 0.814-0.896). These models also exhibited good discriminatory capacity in the validation cohort, with corresponding AUC values of 0.716 (95% CI 0.541-0.892) and 0.795 (95% CI 0.689-0.900).

conclusionThis study has successfully constructed reliable nomogram models for forecasting END and poor 90-day outcomes in AIS patients treated with IV thrombolysis; thereby, facilitating personalized prediction of adverse outcomes and adjustment of treatment strategy.

Indexed as

Ischemic StrokeNomogramsThrombolytic TherapyAgedAged, 80 and overFemaleFibrinolytic AgentsHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisRetrospective StudiesRisk FactorsTreatment OutcomeFibrinolytic AgentsAcute ischemic stroke (AIS)Early neurologic deterioration (END)Logistic regressionNomogram modelsOutcomePrognosis

Identifiers

PMID40708031
PMCPMC12291524

What Socratic holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.