Insights into the Prognostic Efficacy of the Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in the Era of Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy: A Nomogram for Predicting Long-Term Survival Outcomes.

backgroundThe geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI), a composite metric of serum albumin and body weight, has emerged as a prognostic tool in various cancers. However, its relevance in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients treated with volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) remains unexplored. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of the GNRI in the prediction of the prognosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in the era of VMAT.

methodsThis retrospective study analyzed 498 newly diagnosed, non-metastatic NPC patients treated with VMAT between 2010 and 2011. The GNRI was calculated using serum albumin and body weight ratios, with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis determining its optimal prognostic cutoff. Patients were stratified into training (70%) and validation (30%) cohorts. Cox regression identified independent prognostic factors, which were integrated into a nomogram predicting 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS). Model performance was assessed via the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

resultsIn the study, 348 patients were included in the training cohort and 150 patients were included in the validation cohort according to a ratio of 7:3. The median follow-up was 68 months, with 5-year OS rates of 79.3%. A GNRI > 102 independently predicted improved survival (HR = 0.64;

conclusionsThe GNRI is a robust prognostic marker for NPC patients receiving VMAT, reflecting the interplay of nutrition, inflammation, and treatment response. The validated nomogram provides a practical tool for individualized risk stratification, enhancing clinical decision-making in the era of precision radiotherapy.