Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40715688›Full record

SynthesisDigestive diseases and sciences2025

Risk Prediction Models of Esophageal Strictures After Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Xiaoxuan Zhou, Bingbing Wu, Dayu Tang, Yan He, Liangyu Fang

Abstract readSystematic ReviewMeta-Analysis
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Digestive diseases and sciences, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Mapping Two Decades of Research on Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection in Esophageal Cancer: A Bibliometric and Visual Analysis.Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research · 2026
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Xiaoxuan ZhouNursing Department, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University, School of Medicine, No.88 Jiefang Road, Hangzhou, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0008-3526-5646
Bingbing WuNursing Department, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University, School of Medicine, No.88 Jiefang Road, Hangzhou, China.
Dayu TangNursing Department, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University, School of Medicine, No.88 Jiefang Road, Hangzhou, China.
Yan HeNursing Department, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University, School of Medicine, No.88 Jiefang Road, Hangzhou, China.
Liangyu FangNursing Department, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University, School of Medicine, No.88 Jiefang Road, Hangzhou, China. 2511066@zju.edu.cn.

Funding

the Youth Project of the Chinese Nursing Association ZHKYQ202403
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

aimsThe number of risk prediction models for esophageal stricture following endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) has been increasing steadily, yet their methodological quality and clinical applicability remain under-evaluated. This study systematically evaluates existing models to inform evidence-based selection and use in clinical practice and future research.

methodsA systematic search was conducted across both international and Chinese databases, including PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Embase, CINAHL, CNKI, Wanfang Database, VIP, and SinoMed, covering the period from database inception to December 2024. The PROBAST checklist assessed the risk of bias and applicability of the models. Meta-analyses of predictive factors and were conducted using RevMan 5.4.

resultsA total of 13 studies were included, involving 13 risk prediction models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the models ranged from 0.624 to 0.934, with 10 models having an AUC > 0.8. Quality assessment results indicated all 13 studies had a high risk of bias but demonstrated good applicability. Meta-analysis identified lesion location, lesion longitudinal diameter ≥ 4 cm, circumferential extent ≥ 1/2 or ≥ 3/4, histological invasion depth ≥ M2 or M3 ~ SM1, and damage to the muscularis propria as significant predictive factors for esophageal stricture after esophageal ESD (P < 0.05). Among them, muscularis propria injury was the most reliable predictor (OR = 5.53, 95% CI 3.67-8.34, I

conclusionsThis study systematically evaluated the methodological quality of risk prediction models for esophageal stricture after ESD and conducted the first meta-analysis of shared predictive factors. Future research should improve methodological rigor, perform external validation, and conduct prospective studies focusing on modifiable factors to facilitate precise prevention of stricture.

Indexed as

Endoscopic Mucosal ResectionEsophageal NeoplasmsEsophageal StenosisPostoperative ComplicationsHumansRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsEarly esophageal cancerEndoscopic submucosal dissectionEsophageal strictureRisk prediction modelSystematic review

Identifiers

PMID40715688

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.