Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40744929›Full record

ArticleNature communications2025

Biomarker panels for improved risk prediction and enhanced biological insights in patients with atrial fibrillation.

Pascal B Meyre, Stefanie Aeschbacher, Steffen Blum, Tobias Reichlin, Moa Haller, Nicolas Rodondi, Andreas S Müller, Alain Bernheim, Jürg Hans Beer, Giorgio Moschovitis and 9 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Comprehensive assessment of novel cardiovascular biomarkers in AF.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2026
    Article
  6. Blood Biomarkers and the Risk of Coronary Disease in Atrial Fibrillation.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2026
    Article
  7. Observational
  8. Review
  9. Review
  10. Article
  11. Cancer, Inflammation, and Thrombosis: Drivers of Atrial Fibrillation in Oncology Patients.Clinical and applied thrombosis/hemostasis : official journal of the International Academy of Clinical and Applied Thrombosis/Hemostasis
    Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

19 authors.

Pascal B MeyreDepartment of Cardiology, University Heart Center, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland. pascal.meyre@usb.ch.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1236-1386
Stefanie AeschbacherDepartment of Cardiology, University Heart Center, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
Steffen BlumDepartment of Cardiology, University Heart Center, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
Tobias ReichlinDepartment of Cardiology, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, Bern, Switzerland.
Moa HallerInstitute of Primary Health Care (BIHAM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Nicolas RodondiInstitute of Primary Health Care (BIHAM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Andreas S MüllerDepartment of Cardiology, Triemli Hospital Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Alain BernheimDepartment of Cardiology, Triemli Hospital Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Jürg Hans BeerDepartment Internal Medicine, Baden Switzerland and Center of Molecular Cardiology, Cantonal Hospital Baden, University of Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7199-0406
Giorgio MoschovitisDivison of Cardiology, Regional Hospital of Lugano, Ente Ospedaliero Cantonale (EOS), Lugano, Switzerland.
André ZieglerRoche Diagnostics International, Rotkreuz, Switzerland.
Bianca WahrenbergerDepartment of Cardiology, University Heart Center, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
Elia RigamontiDivison of Cardiology, Regional Hospital of Lugano, Ente Ospedaliero Cantonale (EOS), Lugano, Switzerland.
Giulio ConteCardiocentro Ticino Institute, Ente Ospedaliero Cantonale (EOC), Lugano, Switzerland.
Philipp KrisaiDepartment of Cardiology, University Heart Center, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
Leo H BonatiRheinfelden Rehabilitation Clinic, Rheinfelden, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1163-8133
Stefan OsswaldDepartment of Cardiology, University Heart Center, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
Michael KühneDepartment of Cardiology, University Heart Center, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
David ConenPopulation Health Research Institute, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of adverse cardiovascular events, yet the underlying biological mechanisms remain unclear. We evaluate a panel of 12 circulating biomarkers representing diverse pathophysiological pathways in 3817 AF patients to assess their association with adverse cardiovascular outcomes. We identify 5 biomarkers including D-dimer, growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), interleukin-6 (IL-6), N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTropT) that independently predict cardiovascular death, stroke, myocardial infarction, and systemic embolism, significantly enhancing predictive accuracy. Additionally, GDF-15, insulin-like growth factor-binding protein-7 (IGFBP-7), NT-proBNP, and hsTropT predict heart failure hospitalization, while GDF-15 and IL-6 are associated with major bleeding events. A biomarker model improves predictive accuracy for stroke and major bleeding compared to established clinical risk scores. Machine learning models incorporating these biomarkers demonstrate consistent improvements in risk stratification across most outcomes. In this work, we show that integrating biomarkers related to myocardial injury, inflammation, oxidative stress, and coagulation into both conventional and machine learning-based models refine prognosis and guide clinical decision-making in AF patients.

Indexed as

Atrial FibrillationBiomarkersAgedFemaleFibrin Fibrinogen Degradation ProductsGrowth Differentiation Factor 15HumansInterleukin-6Machine LearningMaleMiddle AgedMyocardial InfarctionNatriuretic Peptide, BrainPeptide FragmentsPrognosisRisk AssessmentBiomarkersFibrin Fibrinogen Degradation Productsfibrin fragment DGDF15 protein, humanGrowth Differentiation Factor 15IL6 protein, humanInterleukin-6Natriuretic Peptide, BrainPeptide Fragmentspro-brain natriuretic peptide (1-76)Troponin T

Identifiers

PMID40744929
PMCPMC12313968

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.