Association between ultra-short-term heart rate variability and atrial fibrillation in heart failure population: a protocol for a prospective observational cohort study.

introductionPatients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF) are at high risk for developing atrial fibrillation (AF) due to significantly impaired cardiac pump function, heightened sympathetic nervous system activity and the frequent coexistence of cardiovascular comorbidities such as hypertension and coronary artery disease. Reduced heart rate variability (HRV), a key marker of autonomic nervous system balance, is an independent predictor of AF. Recently, ultra-short-term HRV (usHRV) has emerged as a promising method for rapid HRV assessment. UsHRV, operationally defined through ≤10 s ECG analyses, represents a methodological divergence from conventional short-term HRV measurements requiring ≥5 min recordings. This paradigm shift permits continuous autonomic surveillance while specifically capturing parasympathetic modulation indices as opposed to composite sympathetic-parasympathetic metrics. Such temporal optimisation establishes a novel framework for expedited autonomic evaluation in time-sensitive clinical environments. Evidence on the link between usHRV and AF in heart failure patients remains limited. This study aims to investigate the association between usHRV and AF risk in this population. METHOD AND ANALYSIS: This is a prospective, single-centre cohort study in patients with heart failure and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF<50%). Eligible patients will be enrolled based on predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. The primary endpoints are AF, atrial flutter and subclinical AF. Secondary outcomes include all-cause mortality and first major cardiovascular events. Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ-12) scores at baseline, 6 and 12 months as patient-centred secondary outcomes. LVEF will be assessed via standard transthoracic ECG, and AF will be identified through 12-lead ECG or long-term wearable ECG monitoring. Patient enrolment began on 1 January 2025, and is expected to conclude by 31 March 2026. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study protocol received approval from the Ethics Committee of Beijing Tsinghua Changgung Hospital on 14 November 2024 (review no. 24674-4-01). The findings will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal. Additionally, this protocol has been registered with the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ChiCTR2400092516).