ArticleFrontiers in microbiology2025
Time trend of measles burden on children and adolescents in BRICS-plus countries from 1990 to 2021 and prediction to 2032.
Article in Frontiers in microbiology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Global burden and trends of non-communicable diseases among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2021: an age-period-cohort and frontier analysis with projections to 2035.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Global burden of ovarian cancer attributable to high BMI, 1990-2021: spatiotemporal trends, risk factors, frontier analysis, and projections to 2036 based on GBD 2021 study.Journal of ovarian research · 2025Article
- Burdens of Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease in China: Findings from the 2021 GBD Study.PloS one · 2025Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
Background: Measles remains a major disease burden on children and adolescents in BRICS-plus countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and five others) despite vaccine efficacy. This study aims to clarify the temporal trend of measles burden and forecast the trend in 2032. Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 were utilized to analyze the prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of measles in BRICS-plus countries. In addition, the association between the social development index (SDI) and measles-related indicators of children and adolescents in BRICS-plus countries was analyzed. Joinpoint regression was performed to identify temporal trends, while the age-period-cohort model was used to assess demographic effects. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were utilized to project indicators to 2032. Results: From 1990 to 2021, the global prevalence of measles dropped by 92% (with an average annual decline of 6.80%), and the average annual decline rates for incidence, mortality, and DALYs were 6.80, 8.02, and 8.02%, respectively. Saudi Arabia had a 100% reduction in prevalence (with an average annual decrease of 15.20%), Ethiopia had the highest DALYs (124542.02), and Russia had the lowest DALYs (1.74). SDI was negatively linked to the measles prevalence ( Conclusion: The declining burden of measles in BRICS-plus countries is correlated with SDI improvement, but low-income countries such as Ethiopia still face a high burden of measles. Children under 5 years and regions with low vaccination rates require prioritized interventions. The burden of measles will continue to decrease in the next decade, and increasing vaccination coverage in high-burden countries will help achieve the goal of measles elimination.
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