Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40830531›Full record

ArticleEuropean journal of medical research2025

Predicting post-liver transplantation mortality: a retrospective cohort study on risk factor identification and prognostic nomogram construction.

Kui Tu, Dan Luo, Xuanyu Gu, Jichang Jiang, Zhihong Zheng, Lijin Zhao

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Article in European journal of medical research, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Kui TuAffiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, Guizhou, China.
Dan LuoThe Second Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, Guizhou, China.
Xuanyu GuAffiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, Guizhou, China.
Jichang JiangAffiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, Guizhou, China.
Zhihong ZhengAffiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, Guizhou, China.
Lijin ZhaoAffiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, Guizhou, China. 386421696@qq.com.

Funding

Zunyi City Science and Technology Cooperation HZ Document No. 212 (2024)
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundTo identify risk factors for post-transplant mortality and develop a machine learning-integrated prognostic tool to optimise clinical decision-making in liver transplantation (LT) recipients.

methodsThis retrospective cohort study analysed 173 allogeneic LT recipients at the Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University between August 2019 and December 2023. Clinical and biochemical variables were systematically collected, including recipient profiles [age, gender, prior abdominal surgery Performance Status (PS) scores], biochemical markers (serum creatinine, sodium, albumin, total bilirubin, neutrophil/lymphocyte counts), and prognostic scores [Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI)]. Intraoperative metrics, such as blood loss volume and anhepatic phase duration, were also recorded. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression identified mortality predictors. LASSO-regularised Cox regression facilitated variable selection and nomogram construction. Internal validation used decision curve analysis (quantifying clinical net benefit) and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis [12/18/24-month area under the curve (AUC)]. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis stratified patients into tertiles.

resultsUnivariate analysis identified MELD score > 25, blood loss > 5 L, PS score, neutrophil count, total bilirubin level, and MELD-Na score as significant predictors (p < 0.05). Multivariate Cox regression confirmed massive haemorrhage (> 5 L) as an independent mortality predictor (p < 0.001). LASSO-selected predictors (prior abdominal surgery, blood loss > 5 L, and ALBI score) formed a prognostic nomogram demonstrating strong discrimination (1-year AUC: 0.824; 2-year AUC: 0.788). Tertile-based stratification revealed significant intergroup differences in survival (p < 0.001).

conclusionsMassive intraoperative haemorrhage independently predicted post-LT mortality. The validated nomogram integrating surgical history, haemorrhage severity, and ALBI score enables clinically actionable risk stratification, potentially informing perioperative resource allocation and personalised management protocols.

Indexed as

End Stage Liver DiseaseLiver TransplantationNomogramsPostoperative ComplicationsAdultFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsLiver transplantationMachine learningRisk factorsSurvival predictionTransplantation prognosis

Identifiers

PMID40830531
PMCPMC12366117

What Socratic holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.