ArticleFrontiers in cardiovascular medicine2025
A global prediction of cardiovascular disease from 2020 to 2030.
Article in Frontiers in cardiovascular medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- The long-term cardiovascular safety and efficacy of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists in high-risk cardiovascular populations: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Cardiovascular diabetology. Endocrinology reports · 2026Article
- From acute diagnosis to longitudinal risk stratification: a paradigm shift in the clinical role of cardiac biomarkers.Frontiers in cardiovascular medicine · 2026Article
- Editorial: Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy and Precision Medicine in Cardiovascular Disease.Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: The study aimed to forecast the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) related to cardiovascular disease (CVD) across all age groups worldwide from 2020 to 2030. Methods: Data spanning from 1990 to 2019 across diverse global populations were extracted from the GBD 2019 study data. Generalized Additive Models (GAM) were utilized to predict the disease burden for the period between 2020 and 2030. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was employed to measure the temporal trends. Results: The EAPC for age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) is projected to be 0.11 from 2020 to 2030, while for age-standardized death rate (ASDR) it is expected to be -1.11, and for age-standardized DALY rate it is estimated to be -1.04. By 2030, males are predicted to experience a higher burden compared to females, with higher ASIR (5,092.65 vs. 3,553.02) and ASDR (245.92 vs. 184.33), as well as a higher age-standardized DALY rate (734.72 vs. 653.71). Oceania is anticipated to have the highest age-standardized DALY rate at 9,556.79. Central Asia stands out among the regions with the highest ASIR (437.48) and ASDR (1,093.93). Lower Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions are projected to bear a greater burden of CVD by 2030, indicating an inverse relationship between SDI and CVD burden. Cabo Verde leads with the highest EAPC for DALYs and deaths at 4.08 (95% CI: 3.93, 4.23) and 4.82 (95% CI: 4.61, 5.04), respectively. The highest EAPC for incidence is observed in Slovenia at 1.80 (95% CI: 1.78, 1.83). Conclusion: From 2020 to 2030, the global CVD burden is projected to rise, with males and low SDI regions-particularly Oceania, Central Asia, and Cabo Verde-facing the highest risks. Strengthening primary prevention (e.g., addressing diet, physical inactivity, tobacco), implementing gender-specific interventions, and improving healthcare access in low-SDI areas are critical. Global collaboration and targeted investments can mitigate disparities and reduce preventable deaths, aligning with equitable health outcomes.
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