Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40880407›Full record

ArticlePloS one2025

Global trends in Alzheimer's disease and other dementias in adults aged 55 and above (1992-2021): An age-period-cohort analysis based on the GBD 2021.

Qianqian Zhang, Yanwen Deng, Mo Xue, Zihan Ni, Guangyan Luo, Kan Tian

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Qianqian ZhangSchool of Health Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Nanjing, China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0000-1555-7619
Yanwen DengSchool of Medicine, Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Nanjing, China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0005-0618-6162
Mo XueSchool of Health Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Nanjing, China.
Zihan NiSchool of Elderly Care Services and Management, Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Nanjing, China.
Guangyan LuoSchool of Health Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Nanjing, China.
Kan TianSchool of Elderly Care Services and Management, Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Nanjing, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAlzheimer's disease and other dementias (ADOD) are growing global health challenges. While existing studies primarily focus on dementia prevention and management in individuals aged 65 and older, evidence suggests that cognitive decline and pathological changes begin earlier (≥55 years). This study focuses on this younger group to enable earlier risk identification and preventive interventions.

methodsThis study used GBD 2021 data to extract incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs related to ADOD. Trends from 1992 to 2021 were assessed using the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model. Future burden from 2022 to 2046 was projected with the Nordpred model and validated using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model.

resultsFrom 1992 to 2021, ADOD incidence among individuals aged ≥55 increased by 143.88%. The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) rose from 3,870.6 to 3,975.8 per 100,000. Deaths in 2021 were 1.75 times higher than in 1992. The age-standardized DALY rate was consistently higher in females, while males showed an upward trend (net drift, 0.05). APC analysis revealed the steepest incidence increase in the 60-64 age group, with earlier rises in males. Period effects indicated unfavorable incidence trends in high-middle SDI and middle-SDI regions, and similarly adverse mortality trends in high-middle and low-middle SDI regions. Projections suggest a slight increase in ASIR and ASMR by 2046, with females maintaining higher rates than males.

conclusionThe global burden of ADOD among individuals aged 55 years and above remains substantial, particularly in East Asia and among females. Given regional heterogeneity, this study recommends developing and implementing region-specific interventions for more effective improvements.

Indexed as

Alzheimer DiseaseDementiaAgedAged, 80 and overBayes TheoremCohort StudiesFemaleGlobal Burden of DiseaseGlobal HealthHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedPrevalence

Identifiers

PMID40880407
PMCPMC12396692

What Socratic holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.