Evidence mapPaperPMID 40901823Full record

ArticlePloS one2025

AI-driven analysis of diabetes risk determinants in U.S. adults: Exploring disease prevalence and health factors.

Dawid Majcherek, Antoni Ciesielski, Paweł Sobczak

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Guideline
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Dawid MajcherekDepartment of International Management, Collegium of World Economy, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4352-5643
Antoni CiesielskiTechnical Schools Complex named after Waldemar Gostomczyk in Ostrów Wielkopolski, Ostrów Wielkopolski, Poland.
Paweł SobczakDepartment of Technical Sciences, Faculty of Economics and Technical Sciences, University of Applied Sciences in Konin, Konin, Poland.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundDiabetes remains a major public health concern in the United States, with a complex interplay of behavioral, demographic, and clinical risk factors. This study aims to identify the three best-performing machine learning models for diabetes risk prediction and to visualize the most influential predictors affecting diabetes likelihood. By leveraging a large, representative dataset, the study contributes to evidence-based strategies for targeted prevention.

methodsData were obtained from the 2015 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), a nationally representative, population-based survey collecting information on health behaviors, chronic conditions, and preventive care. The analytical sample included 253,680 adult respondents and over twenty features encompassing sociodemographic variables (e.g., age, sex, race, income, education), health behaviors (e.g., smoking, physical activity, diet), and outcomes (e.g., BMI, hypertension, diabetes status). Eighteen machine learning models were trained and evaluated, including AdaBoost, Extra Trees Classifier, C5.0 Decision Tree, and CatBoost. Models were assessed using predictive accuracy and AUC scores. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis was used to interpret the top model and examine how changes in key features influence diabetes risk.

resultsAmong the evaluated models, the Extra Trees Classifier achieved the highest predictive accuracy (>90%) and an AUC of 0.99. AdaBoost and CatBoost also demonstrated strong performance. Feature importance analysis identified BMI, age, general health status, income, physical health days, and education as the top predictors. A nonlinear association between income and diabetes risk was observed, with the highest prevalence in individuals earning $20,000-$25,000. Risk was also elevated in individuals aged 65-69 and those reporting poor general health. Hypertension showed a strong positive correlation with diabetes risk.

conclusionsMachine learning models, particularly tree-based ensemble methods, offer robust tools for diabetes risk prediction. These findings support their integration into public health analytics for personalized risk assessment and data-driven prevention strategies.

Indexed as

Diabetes MellitusMachine LearningAdolescentAdultAgedBehavioral Risk Factor Surveillance SystemFemaleHealth BehaviorHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrevalenceRisk FactorsUnited StatesYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID40901823
PMCPMC12407459

What Socratic holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.