Evidence mapPaperPMID 40905667Full record

ArticleAIDS (London, England)2025

Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events (PREVENT) score accuracy among people with HIV in the multicenter CNICS cohort.

Matthew S Durstenfeld, Robin M Nance, Raymond Jones, Rebecca Abelman, Alexander P Hoffmann, Greer Burkholder, Priscilla Y Hsue, Chris T Longenecker, Peter W Hunt, Michael S Saag and 4 more

Abstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in AIDS (London, England), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Developing machine learning models to improve cardiovascular risk prediction for people living with HIV.International journal of cardiology. Cardiovascular risk and prevention · 2026
    Article
  2. Article
  3. REPRIEVE Analysis of New Cardiovascular Risk Calculators in HIV: Underpredicting Risk Means Preventing Fewer Heart Attacks.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Matthew S DurstenfeldUniversity of California, San Francisco, CA.
Robin M NanceUniversity of Washington, Seattle, WA.
Raymond JonesUniversity of Alabama at Birmingham, AL.
Rebecca AbelmanUniversity of California, San Francisco, CA.
Alexander P HoffmannUniversity of Washington, Seattle, WA.
Greer BurkholderUniversity of Alabama at Birmingham, AL.
Priscilla Y HsueUniversity of California, Los Angeles, CA.
Chris T LongeneckerUniversity of Washington, Seattle, WA.
Peter W HuntUniversity of California, San Francisco, CA.
Michael S SaagUniversity of Alabama at Birmingham, AL.
Joseph A C DelaneyUniversity of Washington, Seattle, WA.
Matthew J FeinsteinNorthwestern University, Chicago, IL, USA.
Heidi M CraneUniversity of Washington, Seattle, WA.
Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) Investigators

Funding

University of Washington/Fred Hutch Center for AIDS ResearchP30AI027757 · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · 1988 to 2025
$16.8M
UCSF-GIVI Center for AIDS researchP30AI027763 · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · 1988 to 2025
$12.8M
UAB Center for AIDS Research (CFAR)P30AI027767 · UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA AT BIRMINGHAM · 1988 to 2025
$12.1M
CFAR Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS)R24AI067039 · UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA AT BIRMINGHAM · 2025 to 2025
$6.4M
Impact of Asymptomatic CMV on Cardiovascular Event Risk in Treated HIVR01HL180319 · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · 2025 to 2025
$3.0M
Immunologic, Inflammatory, and Clinical contributors to HIV-Related Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction (HFpEF)R01HL156792 · NHLBI · NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY · PI Matthew Joel Feinstein · 2023 to 2023
$733k
Links between Cardiovascular disease, Lung disease, and Obstructive sleep apnea in HIV: Understanding complex patientsR01HL126538 · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · 2025 to 2025
$668k
Low Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Chronotropic Incompetence inHIV: Risk Factors, Cardiovascular Implications, and Exercise Training as TreatmentK23HL172699 · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · 2025 to 2025
$198k
A Pilot Trial of High-Intensity Exercise to Combat Vascular and Cognitive Dysfunction in Older Adults with HIV.K01AG086063 · UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA AT BIRMINGHAM · 2025 to 2025
$126k
NHLBI NIH HHS K23 HL172699NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL126538NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL156792NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL180319NHLBI NIH HHS R56 HL160457NIAID NIH HHS K24 AI145806NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI027757NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI027763NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI027767NIAID NIH HHS R24 AI067039NIA NIH HHS K01 AG086063
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPeople with HIV (PWH) are at elevated cardiovascular risk, but existing calculators have suboptimal calibration for this population. The American Heart Association developed new prediction equations (PREVENT) to replace the pooled cohort equations (PCE). PREVENT has not been validated among PWH.

methodsWithin the Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) cohort, we included individuals aged 40-75 without myocardial infarction or stroke at baseline from 2001 to 2021. We calculated predicted 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk at baseline using the PCE and the PREVENT 10-year ASCVD base equation. Myocardial infarction and stroke were systematically adjudicated. To assess discrimination, we calculated Harrell's C -index and to assess calibration we used the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino goodness-of-fit tests.

resultsWe included 13 135 individuals from five sites across the United States. Mean age at enrollment was 44 ± 9 years and 18% were female. Mean predicted 10-year ASCVD risk was 5.8% by PCE and 2.9% by PREVENT. Over 5.7 ± 3.5 years of follow-up, 628 individuals had myocardial infarction or stroke. Discrimination was improved with PREVENT compared to PCE, with Harrell's C -indexes of 0.722 (95% CI 0.701, 0.741) and 0.708 (95% CI 0.687, 0.729), respectively ( P  = 0.008). Both equations underpredicted risk: the observed-to-expected ratio was 2.69 for PREVENT ( P  < 0.001) and 1.35 for PCE ( P  < 0.001). Calibration slopes were 1.998 for PREVENT and 0.932 for PCE, respectively.

conclusionsAmong this cohort of PWH, the PREVENT 10-year ASCVD equations were poorly calibrated and underestimated composite risk for myocardial infarction and stroke, with observed risks more than double predicted risks.

Indexed as

Cardiovascular DiseasesHIV InfectionsAdultAgedCohort StudiesFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedMyocardial InfarctionRisk AssessmentStrokeUnited Statescardiovascular riskHIVlongitudinal cohort studypredictionPREVENT equationsstatins

Identifiers

PMID40905667
PMCPMC12927743

What Socratic holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.