Evidence mapPaperPMID 40909446Full record

ArticleFrontiers in medicine2025

Analysis of gender- and age-stratified asthma burden: forecasting prevalence trends in 2030.

Zhenzhen Pan, Hongye Yang, Yuting Jin, Qin Zhou, Qian Wang, Chuangli Hao, Ling Li

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Frontiers in medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Zhenzhen PanDepartment of Respiratory Medicine, Children's Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, China.
Hongye YangDepartment of Pediatric, Jiangyin No. 3 People's Hospital, Wuxi, China.
Yuting JinDepartment of Pediatrics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, China.
Qin ZhouDepartment of Respiratory Medicine & Clinical Allergy Center, Affiliated Children's Hospital of Jiangnan University, Wuxi, China.
Qian WangDepartment of Respiratory Medicine & Clinical Allergy Center, Affiliated Children's Hospital of Jiangnan University, Wuxi, China.
Chuangli HaoDepartment of Respiratory Medicine, Children's Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, China.
Ling LiDepartment of Respiratory Medicine & Clinical Allergy Center, Affiliated Children's Hospital of Jiangnan University, Wuxi, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Asthma poses a global health challenge, requiring an understanding of its burden to guide policy. Using GBD 2021 data, this study aims to assess the burden of asthma worldwide. Methods: We extracted data on asthma prevalence, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from GBD for the period 1990-2021. Age-standardized rates (ASR) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were calculated to understand trends. We analyzed variations in asthma burden across gender and age groups, and explored the correlation between socio-demographic index (SDI) and asthma burden. Furthermore, we examined the main risk factors contributing to asthma. Lastly, we predicted the future asthma burden over the next 8 years. Results: High population countries such as India and China reported higher numbers of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs. From 1990 to 2021, the ASR of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for asthma showed an overall downward trend. Children under 14 years of age demonstrated notably higher incidence rates, with the highest concentrations observed among those below 5 years, whereas the elderly population (>90 years) exhibited the peak prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) burden. Gender differences were observed, with males having a higher burden before age 15-19, and females afterward. In China, smoking emerged as a significant risk factor for men, while the risk associated with high body mass index (BMI) has increased notably in recent years. Both incidence and prevalence in China are projected to decrease in the future. Conclusion: This study finds 15-19 years is a key turning point for gender differences in asthma burden, pinpointing smoking, high BMI, and NO₂ as risk factors. From 2022-2030, asthma prevalence/incidence is set to decline overall but rise in 15-19-year-olds, highlighting adolescence as a new prevention focus and a call for better health education in China.

Indexed as

ageasthmaestimated annual percentage changeGBDsocio-demographic index

Identifiers

PMID40909446
PMCPMC12404962

What Socratic holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.