ArticleClinical and experimental dental research2025
Burden and Predictions of Untreated Caries in China, 1990-2039: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.
Article in Clinical and experimental dental research, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Spatial population study on the association among socio-economic indicators and oral health in preschool children in Buenos Aires.BMJ open · 2026Article
- Health and Economic Impact of a Large-Scale School-Based Pit and Fissure Sealant Program in Dongguan, China: A Real-World Program Evaluation.International journal of dentistry · 2026Article
- Burden and Predictions of Untreated Caries in China, 1990-2039: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.Clinical and experimental dental research · 2025Article
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7 authors.
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Abstract
objectiveThis study aims to analyze the burden of untreated caries in deciduous and permanent teeth in China from 1990 to 2019 and projects its future trends through 2039. MATERIALS AND
methodsData on the burden of caries in primary and permanent teeth in China between 1990 and 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study to assess the current burden of untreated caries. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was estimated using a joinpoint regression model to evaluate temporal trends in the burden of untreated caries. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project the burden of untreated caries between 2019 and 2039.
resultsFrom 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of untreated caries in deciduous teeth in China increased by 6.8%, with an AAPC of 0.22 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.15-0.22, p < 0.05). The ASIR of caries in permanent teeth decreased by 1.3%, with an AAPC of -0.05 (95% CI: -0.04 to -0.05, p < 0.05). The highest incidence of caries in primary teeth was observed in the 0-4 age group, whereas the highest ASIR of caries in permanent teeth was observed in the 20-24 age group. No significant sex differences were found in the incidence rates of caries in either dentition. Projections from 2020 to 2039 indicate an upward trend in the ASIR of caries in both deciduous and permanent teeth.
conclusionsOver the past 30 years, the burden of dental caries in China has increased significantly. Projections indicate that the ASIR of dental caries will continue to increase. Therefore, appropriate prevention and control strategies are required to reduce the burden of caries in the Chinese population.
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