Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40961920›Full record

ArticleCell reports. Medicine2025

Pancreatic cancer risk prediction using deep sequential modeling of longitudinal diagnostic and medication records.

Chunlei Zheng, Asif Khan, Daniel Ritter, Debora S Marks, Nhan V Do, Nathanael R Fillmore, Chris Sander

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Cell reports. Medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Chunlei ZhengVA Boston Healthcare System, Boston, MA, USA; Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA.
Asif KhanHarvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Ludwig Center at Harvard, Boston, MA, USA. Electronic address: asif.khan@hms.harvard.edu.
Daniel RitterHarvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Computer Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.
Debora S MarksHarvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Boston, MA, USA.
Nhan V DoVA Boston Healthcare System, Boston, MA, USA; Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA.
Nathanael R FillmoreVA Boston Healthcare System, Boston, MA, USA; Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Chris SanderHarvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Boston, MA, USA; Ludwig Center at Harvard, Boston, MA, USA. Electronic address: sander.research@gmail.com.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a rare, aggressive cancer often diagnosed late with low survival rates, due to the lack of population-wide screening programs and the high cost of early detection methods. To enable early detection of high-risk individuals, we develop a transformer-based model trained on longitudinal Veterans Affairs electronic health record (EHR) with 19,426 PDAC cases and ∼15.9 million controls. Our model combines diagnostic and medication trajectories to predict PDAC risk within a 6-, 12-, and 36-month assessment window. Incorporating medication significantly improved performance; among the top 1,000-5,000 highest-risk patients in a cohort of 1 million patients, 3-year PDAC incidence is 115-70 times higher than a reference estimate based on age and sex alone. Furthermore, analysis of most predictive features highlights the role of events such as chronic inflammatory conditions and specific medications on overall PDAC risk. Our work provides an AI-driven identification of high-risk individuals, with a potential to improve early detection, enhance patient care, and reduce healthcare costs.

Indexed as

Carcinoma, Pancreatic DuctalDeep LearningPancreatic NeoplasmsAgedEarly Detection of CancerElectronic Health RecordsFemaleHumansIncidenceLongitudinal StudiesMaleMiddle AgedRisk FactorsAI for medicinedeep learning for healthcareearly detection of cancermachine learning for healthcarepancreatic cancerrisk stratification

Identifiers

PMID40961920
PMCPMC12490214

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.