Evidence mapPaperPMID 40993532Full record

ArticleBMC geriatrics2025

Health inequality in the disease burden of non-communicable diseases among the elderly from 1990 to 2021, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of global burden of disease study.

Xiao Hu, Si-Jie Yu, Yue-Can Gao, Yan Zhao, Yi-Sheng He, Yu-Chen Liu, Hai-Feng Pan, Peng Wang

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC geriatrics, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Air Pollution and Brain Tumors in Children. A Systematic Review.Current environmental health reports · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Xiao Hu *Department of Health Promotion and Behavioral Sciences, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui, 230032, China.
Si-Jie Yu *Department of Critical Care Medicine, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, 230001, China.
Yue-Can Gao *Department of Health Promotion and Behavioral Sciences, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui, 230032, China.
Yan ZhaoBozhou Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Bozhou, Anhui, 236800, China.
Yi-Sheng HeDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui, 230032, China.
Yu-Chen LiuDepartment of Otolaryngology-Head & Neck Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230032, China.
Hai-Feng PanDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui, 230032, China. panhaifeng@ahmu.edu.cn.
Peng WangDepartment of Health Promotion and Behavioral Sciences, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui, 230032, China. wangpeng19910318@sina.com.

Funding

Anhui Provincial Natural Science Foundation 2108085Y26National Natural Science Foundation of China 82404354Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Medical University 2022xkj006Research Fund of Anhui Institute of Translational Medicine 2021zhyx-B04the Key Scientific Research Foundation of the Education Department of the Province Anhui 2022AH050653
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundsThe global burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among the elderly is rising, yet health inequalities persist across age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI) levels.

objectivesThis study aims to assess global, regional, and national disparities in disease burdens of NCDs among the elderly from 1990 to 2021, with projections up to 2050.

methodsUsing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we analyzed four key metrics of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) for 10 NCDs across age, sex, and SDI levels. Temporal trends were quantified using annual percentage change (AAPC), and projections for NCDs burden up to 2050 were also performed under the assumption of stable socioeconomic conditions.

resultsIn 2021, the global age-standardized rates for incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR), and DALY (ASDR) were 182,092.67, 99,905.95, 3,360.06, and 75,380.44 per 100,000 individuals among the elderly population, respectively. From 1990 to 2021, there was a slight increase in the ASPR of NCDs by 0.01%, whereas ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR showed declines with rates of -0.04%, -0.99%, and - 0.77%, respectively. Regions with lower SDI exhibited higher disease burden of NCDs, especially in terms of mortality and disability. Furthermore, the predictions for the NCDs burden among the elderly from 2022 to 2050 indicated an incremental trend in prevalence.

conclusionsPersistent disparities in the NCDs burdens highlight the need for equitable healthcare strategies. Healthcare providers are encouraged to provide targeted interventions for specific age groups and address differences in healthcare resource allocation among the elderly across different SDI regions.

Indexed as

Global Burden of DiseaseHealth Status DisparitiesNoncommunicable DiseasesAgedAged, 80 and overDisability-Adjusted Life YearsFemaleForecastingGlobal HealthHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedPrevalenceSocioeconomic FactorsElder populationGlobal burdenHealth inequalityNon-communicable diseasesPrediction

Identifiers

PMID40993532
PMCPMC12462002

What Socratic holds

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.