ArticleNature communications2025
Effects of individual variation and seasonal vaccination on disease risks.
Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Identifying the optimal rapid antigen test for screening and determining the end of isolation: A modeling study.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- A time-delayed epidemic model for control of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI H5Nx) with vaccination, compliance, and non-pharmaceutical interventions.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Estimates of the risk of a large outbreak resulting from pathogen introduction into a population are valuable for planning interventions. Two key factors affecting outbreak risks are variation in transmission between individuals (e.g., superspreading individuals) and change over time (e.g., through seasonality or changing population immunity due to vaccination). Here, we develop an outbreak risk estimation framework that accounts for both features simultaneously. To demonstrate the real-world application of our framework, we consider the design of annual COVID-19 booster vaccination campaigns, using a multi-scale approach incorporating an individual-level model of vaccine-induced antibody dynamics. Near the start of annual vaccine distribution, when population immunity is low, a high outbreak risk is possible; this can be mitigated by distributing vaccines over a longer period. We show that longer distribution periods are particularly beneficial if vaccine coverage and/or effectiveness is high, and if seasonality in transmission is limited.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What Socratic holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.