Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41008799›Full record

ArticleCancers2025

Nationwide Trends and Projections of Early Onset Gastrointestinal Cancers in China.

Tianyu Li, Chen Lin, Weibin Wang

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Cancers, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Observational
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Tianyu LiDepartment of General Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China.
Chen LinDepartment of General Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China.
Weibin WangDepartment of General Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China.

Funding

Beijing Natural Science Foundation 7232127CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences 2024-I2M-ZD-001Capital's Funds for Health Improvement and Research 2024-2-4017National High Level Hospital Clinical Research Funding No. 2022-PUMCH-D-001, No. 2022-PUMCH-B-004National Key R&D Program of China 2022YFF1202600, 2024YFB4708800National Natural Science Foundation of China 82173074
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Early-onset (15-49 years) gastrointestinal cancers are an emerging public health concern in China, yet national trend analyses remain limited. Drawing on data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, we evaluated nationwide trends in the incidence and mortality of early-onset gastrointestinal cancers (esophagus, stomach, liver, colon and rectum, gallbladder and biliary tract, and pancreas) in China from 1990 to 2021 and projected future patterns through 2040 using Bayesian age-period-cohort models. Between 1990 and 2021, age-standardized rates for esophageal, stomach, and liver cancers declined markedly while those for colorectal and biliary tract cancers increased, and pancreatic cancer rates rose modestly. Mortality for upper-GI cancers fell substantially, whereas colorectal cancer deaths rose modestly, with the age-standardized mortality rate declining despite rising incidence. Projections suggest continued declines in upper-GI cancers, further increases in colorectal and biliary tract cancers, and a peak in the age-standardized incidence rate of pancreatic cancer around 2030. These divergent trends highlight an urgent need for targeted prevention and early-detection strategies focused on colorectal, biliary, and pancreatic cancers among patients aged 15-49 years in China.

Indexed as

Chinaearly-onsetgastrointestinal cancerglobal burden of diseaseprojections

Identifiers

PMID41008799
PMCPMC12468148

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.