Evidence mapPaperPMID 41061664Full record

ArticleThe Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism2026

Effect of Weight Change on Type 2 Diabetes Risk: A Prospective Study in a Japanese Population.

Takuya Kagisaki, Megu Y Baden, Asuka Oyama, Midori Noguchi, Hiroyasu Iso, Iichiro Shimomura

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

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PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Takuya KagisakiDepartment of Metabolic Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Osaka, Suita, Osaka 565-0871, Japan.ORCID 0009-0009-7689-2627
Megu Y BadenDepartment of Metabolic Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Osaka, Suita, Osaka 565-0871, Japan.ORCID 0000-0002-7678-0969
Asuka OyamaHealth and Counseling Center, The University of Osaka, Toyonaka, Osaka 560-0043, Japan.ORCID 0000-0002-6584-5958
Midori NoguchiDepartment of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Osaka, Suita, Osaka 565-0871, Japan.ORCID 0000-0001-9515-4077
Hiroyasu IsoInstitute for Global Health Policy Research, Bureau of Global Health Cooperation, Japan Institute for Health Security, Shinjuku, Tokyo 162-8655, Japan.ORCID 0000-0002-9241-7289
Iichiro ShimomuraDepartment of Metabolic Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Osaka, Suita, Osaka 565-0871, Japan.ORCID 0000-0002-0851-9603

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

contextAlthough weight reduction has been shown to reduce type 2 diabetes risk, the threshold of weight change, including increase and decrease, associated with the risk remained unclear.

objectiveWe investigated the association between weight change and the risk of type 2 diabetes.

methodsThe participants were 41 539 nondiabetic residents (16 914 men, 24 625 women) in Kochi, Japan, who underwent health examinations between April 2013 and March 2015. The association between 1-year weight change and the risk of type 2 diabetes was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models.

resultsDuring a mean 5.7-year follow-up, 3564 new-onset type 2 diabetes cases were documented. Compared with participants with stable body weight (<1.0% change), those with weight decreases of 1.0% to 2.9%, 3.0% to 4.9%, and 5.0% or greater showed a lower risk of type 2 diabetes (16% [8%-24%; P < .001]; 25% [15%-34%; P < .001]; and 26% [14%-36%; P < .001], respectively). Conversely, those with weight increases of 1.0% to 2.9%, 3.0% to 4.9%, and 5.0% or greater showed a higher risk (15% [4%-26%; P = .005], 35% [20%-53%; P < .001], and 51% [29%-76%; P < .001], respectively). These associations persisted among individuals with a body mass index (BMI) of 25 or greater or a 10-kg or greater weight gain since age 20 years. Among individuals with BMI 22 to 25, a weight increase of 3.0% or greater showed a higher risk. No associations were observed in individuals with a BMI of less than 22 or aged 75 or older.

conclusionBoth preventing weight gain and reducing weight are important for lowering the risk of type 2 diabetes in Japanese individuals, particularly among those with a BMI of 22 or greater.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2Weight GainWeight LossAdultAgedBody Mass IndexEast Asian PeopleFemaleFollow-Up StudiesHumansJapanMaleMiddle AgedProspective StudiesRisk Factorsdiabetes preventionepidemiologyprospective cohort studytype 2 diabetesweight change

Identifiers

PMID41061664
PMCPMC13017229

What Socratic holds

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.