Evidence mapPaperPMID 41098209Full record

Trial reportCritical care explorations2025

Relationship Between Phenotyping and Individualized Absolute Risk Differences in Sepsis: A Secondary Analysis of Two Approaches in Two Multicenter Trials.

Victor B Talisa, Sachin P Yende, Derek C Angus, Rinaldo Bellomo, Chung-Chou H Chang, Gregory F Cooper, David A Harrison, Alisa Higgins, Jason N Kennedy, Florian B Mayr and 8 more

Abstract readMulticenter StudyRandomized Controlled Trial
In one paragraph

Trial report in Critical care explorations, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

18 authors.

Victor B TalisaDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA.
Sachin P YendeDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA.
Derek C AngusDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA.
Rinaldo BellomoAustralian and New Zealand Intensive Care Research Centre, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Chung-Chou H ChangDivision of General Internal Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA.
Gregory F CooperDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA.
David A HarrisonIntensive Care National Audit & Research Centre, London, United Kingdom.
Alisa HigginsAustralian and New Zealand Intensive Care Research Centre, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Jason N KennedyDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA.
Florian B MayrDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA.
Paul MounceyIntensive Care National Audit & Research Centre, London, United Kingdom.
Sandra L PeakeAustralian and New Zealand Intensive Care Research Centre, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Kathy RowanIntensive Care National Audit & Research Centre, London, United Kingdom.
Lu TangDepartment of Biostatistics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA.
Sofia TriantafyllouDepartment of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Crete, Crete, Greece.
Donald M YealyDepartment of Emergency Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA.
Christopher W SeymourDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA.
Faraaz Ali ShahVeterans Affairs Pittsburgh Healthcare System, Pittsburgh, PA.

Funding

Sepsis online: learning while doing to understand biology and treatmentR35GM119519 · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · 2025 to 2025
$473k
REMISE study: REMnant biospecimen Investigation in SEpsisR21GM144851 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI Christopher Warren Seymour · 2023 to 2023
$212k
NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL164835NHLBI NIH HHS R21 HL168070NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM141081NIGMS NIH HHS R21 GM144851NIGMS NIH HHS R35 GM119519
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesSepsis trials likely include patients who vary in response to therapeutic interventions. The optimal approach to identify such differences in treatment response remains unclear. Estimating individualized absolute risk differences (iARDs) to model treatment response at an individual patient level using supervised effect models applied to randomized trial data may be informative. We explored the relationship between two subgrouping approaches and a recently published iARD model for the effect of early goal-directed therapy (EGDT) resuscitation in sepsis.

designSecondary analysis of the Protocolized Care for Early Septic Shock (ProCESS) and Australasian Resuscitation in Sepsis Evaluation (ARISE) trials. We applied clinical subtypes (α, β, γ, δ) to 829 ProCESS and 1588 ARISE patients and biologic "hyperinflammatory" and "nonhyperinflammatory" subphenotypes to 363 ProCESS patients with biomarker data using established methods. We predicted iARDs with supervised learning using clinical variables as predictors and 90-day mortality as the primary outcome. We evaluated iARD variability within subgroups.

settingEighty-one sites worldwide. PATIENTS/SUBJECTS: Adults with septic shock.

interventionsEGDT or usual care. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN

resultsThe average treatment effect of EGDT appeared to vary within both clinical and biologic subphenotypes. EGDT appeared potentially beneficial in the β and nonhyperinflammatory subphenotypes but harmful in the γ and hyperinflammatory subphenotypes. However, the predicted iARDs within each subgroup ranged from considerable harm to considerable benefit. For example, for the β-subtype, the average mortality reduction from EGDT was 8.5% (95% CI, -0.4 to 17.5), but the iARDs ranged from a 29% increase to a 16% reduction in mortality, with 39% of patients predicted to be harmed.

conclusionsAlthough both clinical and biologic phenotyping may identify subgroups whose average treatment effect is beneficial or harmful, individual risks and benefits within subgroups still vary dramatically, raising concern that phenotyping may not reliably or safely personalize sepsis care.

Indexed as

Early Goal-Directed TherapySepsisShock, SepticAgedBiomarkersFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPhenotypePrecision MedicineResuscitationRisk AssessmentBiomarkersclusteringindividualized treatment effectsprecision medicineresuscitationsepsis

Identifiers

PMID41098209
PMCPMC12520220

What Socratic holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.