A comparative study highlights superiority of LSTM in crop genomic prediction.

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conclusionWe systematically evaluated three key determinants affecting prediction accuracy and the algorithm performance differences based on fifteen state-of-the-art GP methods, and found LSTM suitable for capturing additive and epistatic effects. Genomic prediction (GP) has been developed as an important method supporting crop breeding. By utilizing the phenotype values result from GP, breeders could make decisions in the seedling stage that consequently benefit for cost saving. In recent years, machine learning emerged as an efficient technology to solve modeling problems in many fields, including crop breeding. However, numerous modeling approaches have hindered the application of GP since breeders struggle to choose. Therefore, a comprehensively methodological research with guiding significance is extremely necessary. In the present study, we systematically evaluated three key determinants affecting prediction accuracy and the algorithm performance differences based on fifteen state-of-the-art GP methods. As for genomic feature processing, we found feature selection (SNP filtering approach) performed better than feature extraction (PCA method). Specifically, the feature relationship dependent methods (GBLUP, RNN, and LSTM) as well as DNN architecture showed superior performance with feature selection. Marker density analysis showed positive correlation with prediction accuracy in a limited threshold. Comparison on effect of population size demonstrated a positive correlation between trait genetic complexity and the optimal population size required. By testing fifteen modeling methods, we found LSTM network displayed superior performance, achieving the highest average STScore (0.967) across six datasets. Further research using all cell states or the latest cell states of LSTM inputs demonstrated its architecture particularly adept with capturing additive and epistatic QTL effects among SNPs. In conclusion, our findings provide basic principles for implementing GP in breeding project to maximize prediction accuracy while maintaining cost-effectiveness.