A data-driven mathematical model for evaluating the societal and economic burden of delayed access to innovative medicines.

Background: This study presents a novel mathematical framework to quantify the societal and economic impacts of delays in the reimbursement and distribution of innovative medicines. Methods: Utilizing the concept of years of life lost (YLL) as a measure of premature mortality, the framework calculated the impact of delay on YLL, years of potential productive life lost (YPPLL), and cost of productivity loss (CPL). The proposed model incorporated mortality probabilities through the Heligman-Pollard (HP) model, examining how delays influence health outcomes, particularly for patients awaiting treatments like Icosapent ethyl. Results: The findings reveal that extended delays significantly increase mortality and economic losses, emphasizing the need for timely access to high-value therapies. This mathematical framework not only emphasizes the adverse effects of delayed reimbursement on populations but also highlights the importance of high-quality data in accurately assessing these effects. By ensuring completeness, consistency, and reliability in healthcare data, the framework advocates for evidence-based policy decisions that promote equitable healthcare access and minimize disparities. Conclusions: The present study underscores the importance of efficient pharmaceutical policymaking in maximizing the societal benefits of innovative treatments, ensuring that both health outcomes and economic sustainability are prioritized in healthcare systems.