Trial reportArthritis research & therapy2025
The development of a clinical prediction model for response to methotrexate, tofacitinib, and etanercept in patients with Psoriatic Arthritis.
Trial report in Arthritis research & therapy, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Circulating immune cell biomarkers in Psoriatic Arthritis: associations with clinical manifestations and treatment response in the TOFA-PREDICT trial.Arthritis research & therapy · 2026Trial
- Predicting clinical response in psoriatic arthritis through integrative analysis of transcriptomics and proteomics.Arthritis research & therapy · 2026Trial
- Multi-omics insights into spondyloarthritis and psoriatic arthritis: integrating genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, and the microbiome for immunological and clinical translation.Frontiers in immunology · 2026Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe aim of this study was to use clinical data to develop a prediction model for treatment response, comparing tofacitinib to methotrexate or etanercept in individual patients with Psoriatic Arthritis.
methodsData from the development cohort (n = 80) of the TOFA-PREDICT trial were used. The cohort included PsA patients naïve to disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) randomised to tofacitinib (n = 20) or methotrexate (n = 20), and patients failing conventional synthetic DMARD (csDMARD) treatment randomised to add-on tofacitinib (n = 20) or etanercept (n = 20). Treatment response was defined as achievement of minimal disease activity at week 16. Elastic net regression was used to select relevant baseline predictors in the complete cohort and in treatment subgroups. Using Ridge regression with different modelling strategies, three prediction models were developed and compared. Based on performance, a final model was selected.
resultsIncreased Health Assessment Questionnaire score, increased tender joint count, increased Leeds Enthesitis Index score, decreased VAS global assessment by physician and previous Tumour Necrosis Factor alpha inhibitor treatment were selected as predictors for non-response. The final cross-validated model had an AUC-ROC of 0.76 and predicted clinically relevant differences in response to the compared treatments. The predicted probability of response was higher for methotrexate compared to tofacitinib in 85% of DMARD naïve patients. The predicted probability of response was higher for etanercept compared to tofacitinib in all patients failing csDMARD treatment.
conclusionOur results support the use of baseline clinical data for prediction of response to different treatments. We intend to validate this prediction model and to assess the additional predictive value of imaging and multi-omics biomarkers in future analyses.
trial registrationEudraCT Trial registration number 2017-003900-28, registration date January 25th 2018.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.