Evidence mapPaperPMID 41147370Full record

ArticleJournal of the American Heart Association2025

Global Trends and Forecast of Cardiovascular Diseases, Cancer, and Shared Risk Factors: Insights From the GBD 2021.

Chieh Y Koo, Bryan Chong, Jayanth Jayabaskaran, Srinithy Nagarajan, Silingga M Jauhari, Yiming Chen, Li L Tan, Anurag Mehta, Muhammad S Khan, Mark Muthiah and 9 more

Abstract read
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Article in Journal of the American Heart Association, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

19 authors.

Chieh Y KooDepartment of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre National University Health System Singapore Singapore.ORCID 0000-0002-6051-3807
Bryan ChongYong Loo Lin School of Medicine National University Singapore Singapore Singapore.ORCID 0000-0002-3565-7657
Jayanth JayabaskaranYong Loo Lin School of Medicine National University Singapore Singapore Singapore.ORCID 0009-0006-1490-9524
Srinithy NagarajanYong Loo Lin School of Medicine National University Singapore Singapore Singapore.ORCID 0009-0003-8350-5425
Silingga M JauhariDepartment of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre National University Health System Singapore Singapore.ORCID 0009-0007-2706-3422
Yiming ChenYong Loo Lin School of Medicine National University Singapore Singapore Singapore.
Li L TanDepartment of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre National University Health System Singapore Singapore.ORCID 0000-0002-0376-3674
Anurag MehtaEmory Clinical Cardiovascular Research Institute, Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine Emory University School of Medicine Atlanta Georgia USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6910-5551
Muhammad S KhanBaylor Scott and White Research Institute Dallas TX USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1250-6351
Mark MuthiahYong Loo Lin School of Medicine National University Singapore Singapore Singapore.
Derek HausenloyYong Loo Lin School of Medicine National University Singapore Singapore Singapore.
A M RichardsChristchurch Heart Institute University of Otago Dunedin New Zealand.ORCID 0000-0002-2023-8177
Dennis T KoSchulich Heart Program, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre Sunnybrook Research Institute Toronto ON Canada.ORCID 0000-0001-6840-8051
Christian D MallenSchool for Primary Care and School of Medicine Keele University Keele UK.ORCID 0000-0002-2677-1028
Eric A SecemskyHarvard Medical School Boston MA USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3861-3163
Mark Y ChanDepartment of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre National University Health System Singapore Singapore.ORCID 0000-0003-0389-7450
Paaladinesh ThavendiranathanDivision of Cardiology, Ted Rogers Program in Cardiotoxicity Prevention, Peter Munk Cardiac Center University Health Network Toronto ON Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-6497-1098
Nicholas W S ChewDepartment of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre National University Health System Singapore Singapore.ORCID 0000-0002-0640-0430
Mamas A MamasKeele Cardiovascular Research Group, School of Medicine Keele University Keele UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9241-8890

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer share multiple risk factors and are the leading causes of morbidity and death worldwide. This study aims to examine historical and projected trends of the combined CVD-cancer global estimates and their shared risk factors.

methodsDeath and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with CVDs, cancers, and their risk factors were obtained from the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2021 study. Historical estimates from 1990 to 2021 and forecast data from 2025 to 2050 were examined across age groups, regions, sociodemographic index, and sex.

resultsIn 2021, CVD-cancer resulted in age-standardized DALY rates of 8009 per 100 000 population (63% contributed by CVD) and age-standardized mortality rates of 352 per 100 000 population (67% by CVD) globally. While age-standardized DALYs of the CVD-cancer burden declined by 30% (33% in CVD and 26% in cancer), crude DALYs increased by 46% from 1990 to 2021. CVD-cancer resulted in higher age-standardized DALY rates in men (9654 per 100 000 population) than women (6556 per 100 000 population). While low-middle sociodemographic index regions had the highest CVD-related age-standardized DALY rates (6744 per 100 000 population), high-middle sociodemographic index regions had the highest cancer-related rates (3388 per 100 000) in 2021. The top risk factors driving CVD-cancer morbidity burden in 2021 were high systolic blood pressure (largely CVD contribution), dietary risks (89% by CVD), and tobacco (60% by CVD), persisting to 2050.

conclusionsGlobal improvements in CVD-cancer age-standardized morbidity will be offset by the ever-rising crude CVD-cancer morbidity burden. Preventive efforts should prioritize key shared risk factors of hypertension, dietary risks, and tobacco.

Indexed as

Cardiovascular DiseasesGlobal HealthNeoplasmsAdultAgedDisability-Adjusted Life YearsFemaleForecastingGlobal Burden of DiseaseHumansMaleMiddle AgedRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsYoung Adultcardiovascular diseasesdeathdisability‐adjusted life yearsneoplasmsrisk factors

Identifiers

PMID41147370
PMCPMC12684631

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.