Global, regional, and national burden of disease in neck pain: statistical analysis of incidence, prevalence, and DALYS, with projections to 2036.

backgroundNeck pain is a prevalent musculoskeletal disorder whose global epidemiological trends and disease burden remain insufficiently characterized. Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, this study systematically analyzes the incidence, prevalence, DALY rates, and temporal trends in disease burden attributable to neck pain from 1990 to 2021.

methodsWe extracted the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates of neck pain from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, stratified by country, region, sex, and age group. Trends in the burden of neck pain from 1990 to 2021 were assessed using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to project trends from 2022 to 2036. Additional statistical approaches-including decomposition, frontier, and health inequality analyses-were also applied.

resultsAccording to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, the number of prevalent neck pain cases reached 206,029,629 in 2021, nearly doubling since 1990. The age-standardized disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate (ASDR) for neck pain also exhibited an upward trend. Notably, gender disparities were observed: both the ASDR and the number of cases increased more sharply among women than men, indicating a significantly higher burden for women. Geographically, low- and middle-SDI regions carried a greater disease burden and experienced a more pronounced rise in ASDR. Conversely, high-income regions such as North America and Northern Europe demonstrated the highest risk of neck pain. Frontier analysis identified countries including Austria, Denmark, and the UK as requiring urgent interventions. Health inequality analysis revealed substantial disparities in neck pain burden across countries and regions of differing SDI levels over the past thirty years, with these inequities widening over time. The age-period-cohort (APC) model indicated that the incidence of neck pain rises with age, peaking between 70 and 80 years. Projections from predictive modeling suggest a slow decline in the global burden of neck pain from 2022 to 2036.

conclusionsBetween 1990 and 2021, the global burden of neck pain increased significantly. Women consistently experienced a higher overall disease burden than men. Persistent disparities were observed across genders, age groups, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions, and countries, highlighting the need for targeted health strategies to reduce the worldwide impact of neck pain. Priority interventions should focus on women and lower-SDI regions, where the burden is most pronounced.