ArticleNature communications2025
Specification curve analysis of the TEDDY study reveals large variation in microbiome-based T1D predictive performance.
Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Human-Centered Innovation: Precision Nutrition and the Future of Food.Advanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany) · 2026Review
- The Gut-Pancreas Axis in Type 1 Diabetes: Emerging Insights into Microbiota and Immune Interactions.International journal of molecular sciences · 2026Review
- Unlocking beta cell health: The clinical potential of extracellular vesicles in type 1 diabetes.Clinical and translational medicine · 2026Review
- Gut microbiota and the early prevention window in type 1 diabetes and latent autoimmune diabetes in adults: a state-of-the-art narrative review on diet and metabolites.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2026Review
- Specification curve analysis of the TEDDY study reveals large variation in microbiome-based T1D predictive performance.Nature communications · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The microbiome may play a role in predicting future Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) risk. Associations between the microbiome and T1D onset are well documented but observational microbiome studies are difficult to interpret and reproduce due to differences in study designs. To evaluate if the microbiome is a robust predictor of T1D or T1D associated autoantibodies, we performed a "specification curve analysis" from a longitudinal cohort of 783 individuals at high risk of T1D, that attempts to parameterize and systematically test all possible study design specifications. We predicted T1D and autoantibodies using 11,189 different specifications. We show a large amount of variation in the predictive ability of the microbiome across specifications. 72.5% of models that only use microbial features had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.5 and the "best" model had an AUC of 0.78. Results for every specification can also be found in an interactive app at: http://apps.chiragjpgroup.org/teddy .
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Identifiers
What Socratic holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.