Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41162984›Full record

ArticleBMC medical informatics and decision making2025

Applied machine learning to predict 1-year major adverse cardiovascular events in elderly patients after percutaneous coronary intervention.

Amir Ghaffari Jolfayi, Amir Nasrollahizadeh, Ali Nasrollahizadeh, Homayoun Pishraft-Sabet, Amir Azimi, Yaser Jenab, Mehdi Mehrani, Kaveh Hosseini, Hamidreza Soleimani

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC medical informatics and decision making, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Amir Ghaffari JolfayiRajaie Cardiovascular Medical and Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Amir NasrollahizadehTehran Heart Center, Cardiovascular Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, 1995614331, Iran.
Ali NasrollahizadehTehran Heart Center, Cardiovascular Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, 1995614331, Iran.
Homayoun Pishraft-SabetSchool of Medicine, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Amir AzimiRajaie Cardiovascular Medical and Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Yaser JenabTehran Heart Center, Cardiovascular Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, 1995614331, Iran.
Mehdi MehraniTehran Heart Center, Cardiovascular Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, 1995614331, Iran.
Kaveh HosseiniTehran Heart Center, Cardiovascular Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, 1995614331, Iran.
Hamidreza SoleimaniTehran Heart Center, Cardiovascular Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, 1995614331, Iran. hamid.r.soleimani90@gmail.com.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of mortality worldwide, with elderly patients experiencing the worst prognosis following ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Traditional risk stratification models demonstrate suboptimal performance in geriatric patients due to complex risk profiles involving frailty and multiple comorbidities.

objectivesTo develop machine learning-based predictive models for one-year major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in elderly patients (≥65 years) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for STEMI.

methodsThis retrospective cohort study analyzed 1,358 elderly patients who underwent PCI between 2015 and 2021. MACE included cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and revascularization within one year. Eight machine learning algorithms were evaluated: XGradient Boosting (XGB), Random Forest (RF), Logistic Regression, Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, K-Nearest Neighbors, Decision Trees, and Naive Bayes. The Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) was applied to address class imbalance. Model performance was evaluated using various metrics, and SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) was used to enhance model interpretability and support clinical decision-making by identifying key risk factors driving predictions.

resultsAmong the patients (mean age 74.1 ± 6.7 years, 31.8% female), 152 (11.2%) experienced MACE within one year. XGB and RF emerged as the most robust models, achieving area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 94% and 95%, respectively, with RF demonstrating higher sensitivity (79%) and specificity (96%). SHAP analysis revealed pre-PCI ejection fraction, age, creatinine levels, fasting blood sugar, BMI, and LDL/HDL ratio as the most influential predictors.

conclusionMachine learning models demonstrated strong predictive performance in predicting one-year MACE in elderly post-PCI patients. By combining high-performance models with SHAP-based explanations, this approach supports transparent, clinically actionable risk stratification and personalized care.

Indexed as

Machine LearningPercutaneous Coronary InterventionST Elevation Myocardial InfarctionAgedAged, 80 and overBoosting Machine Learning AlgorithmsClassification AlgorithmsFemaleHumansMalePrediction AlgorithmsPredictive Learning ModelsRandom ForestRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsElderlyMachine learningMajor adverse cardiovascular eventsMyocardial infarctionPercutaneous coronary intervention

Identifiers

PMID41162984
PMCPMC12574188

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.