Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41174635›Full record

ArticleBMC public health2025

Leveraging XGBoost and explainable AI for accurate prediction of type 2 diabetes.

Zahra Rafie, Moslem Sedaghat Talab, Behrooz Ebrahim Zadeh Koor, Ali Garavand, Cirruse Salehnasab, Mustafa Ghaderzadeh

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
22citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

22 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Zahra RafieSchool of Medicine, Student Research Committee, Yasuj University of Medical Sciences, Yasuj, Iran.
Moslem Sedaghat TalabDepartment of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Yasuj University of Medical Sciences, Yasuj, Iran.
Behrooz Ebrahim Zadeh KoorDepartment of Nutrition, School of Health, Yasuj University of Medical Sciences, Yasuj, Iran.
Ali GaravandSchool of Allied Medical Sciences, Lorestan University of Medical Sciences, Khorramabad, Iran.
Cirruse SalehnasabSocial Determinants of Health Research Center, Yasuj University of Medical Sciences, Yasuj, Iran. cirruse.salehnasab@gmail.com.
Mustafa GhaderzadehBoukan Faculty of Medical Sciences, Urmia University of Medical Sciences, Urmia, Iran.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionType 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) poses a major public health challenge, particularly in regions with limited representation in predictive modeling studies. This research aimed to develop and interpret robust machine learning (ML) models for early T2DM risk prediction using data from the Dena Cohort in Iran.

methodsData from 3,203 adults aged 35–70 years were preprocessed through outlier removal, median/mode imputation, feature selection via LightGBM, and class balancing with the Synthetic Minority Over‑sampling Technique (SMOTE). Two gradient‑boosting algorithms, XGBoost and CatBoost, underwent hyperparameter tuning and 10‑fold cross‑validation. Model performance was assessed using accuracy, F1‑score, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) provided global and case‑specific interpretability of predictive features.

resultsXGBoost achieved the highest performance (accuracy = 96.07%, AUC = 99.29%), outperforming CatBoost and demonstrating substantial improvement with SMOTE balancing. Key predictors included fasting blood sugar, fatty liver, urolithiasis, red blood cell indices, and lifestyle factors such as energy drink consumption and prolonged television viewing. SHAP visualizations enhanced model transparency and facilitated individualized risk interpretation.

conclusionThis study demonstrates that combining advanced gradient‑boosting models with SHAP explainability yields highly accurate, interpretable T2DM risk prediction in an underrepresented population. These findings support integrating interpretable ML into clinical workflows for personalized prevention and early intervention strategies.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2AdultAgedBoosting Machine Learning AlgorithmsData AnalyticsFemaleHumansIranMaleMiddle AgedPrediction AlgorithmsPredictive Learning ModelsRisk AssessmentCatBoostDena cohortExplainable AIMachine learningSHAPType 2 diabetesXGBoost

Identifiers

PMID41174635
PMCPMC12577272

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.