Evidence mapPaperPMID 41193239Full record

ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2025

Cause specific mortality risks associated with tropical cyclones in multiple countries and territories: two stage, time series study.

Wenzhong Huang, Rongbin Xu, Zhengyu Yang, Christian Otto, Simon Hales, Samuel Hundessa, Tingting Ye, Paul L C Chua, Elizabeth A Ritchie, Micheline S Z S Coelho and 18 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

28 authors.

Wenzhong HuangClimate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
Rongbin XuChongqing Emergency Medical Centre, Chongqing University Central Hospital, School of Medicine, Chongqing University, Chongqing, China.
Zhengyu YangClimate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
Christian OttoPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.
Simon HalesDepartment of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.
Samuel HundessaClimate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
Tingting YeClimate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
Paul L C ChuaDepartment of Global Health Policy Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Elizabeth A RitchieSchool of Earth Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Micheline S Z S CoelhoDepartment of Pathology, School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Pei YuClimate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
Kraichat TantrakarnapaDepartment of Social and Environmental Medicine, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Krung Thep Maha Nakhon, Thailand.
Paulo H N SaldivaDepartment of Pathology, School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Yiwen ZhangClimate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
Zhihu XuClimate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
Shuang ZhouClimate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
Eric LavigneEnvironmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
Xerxes Tesoro SeposoDepartment of Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan.
Wissanupong KliengchuayDepartment of Social and Environmental Medicine, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Krung Thep Maha Nakhon, Thailand.
Yue Leon GuoDepartment of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University (NTU) and NTU Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
Ho KimDepartment of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Wenhua YuClimate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
Yanming LiuClimate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
Ke JuClimate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
Yao WuClimate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
Bo WenClimate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
Shanshan LiClimate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
Yuming GuoClimate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-1766-6592

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo characterise and quantify the mortality risks for a range of causes after tropical cyclones in nine countries and territories.

designTwo stage, time series study.

settingNine countries or territories (Australia, Brazil, Canada, South Korea, Mexico, New Zealand, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand), covering tropical, subtropical, and extra-tropical regions.

participantsGeneral populations living in regions with tropical cyclones in the nine countries or territories, 2000-19. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: Excess mortality risk of cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, infectious diseases, injuries, neuropsychiatric disorders, renal diseases, digestive diseases, diabetes, and neoplasms as the leading cause of death. Wind speed and rainfall profiles were quantified with a physics based tropical cyclone field model.

results14.8 million deaths and 217 tropical cyclone events in communities from the nine countries or territories were included in the analysis. Mortality risks from various causes consistently increased after tropical cyclones, with peaks occurring within the first two weeks after the cyclone, followed by a rapid decline. During the first two weeks after a tropical cyclone, the highest increases were seen in mortality from renal diseases and injuries, with a cumulative relative risk of 1.92 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.63 to 2.26) and 1.21 (1.12 to 1.30), respectively, for each additional tropical cyclone day. Relatively more modest risks were found for mortality from diabetes (cumulative relative risk 1.15, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.21), neuropsychiatric disorders (1.12, 1.05 to 1.19), infectious diseases (1.11, 1.05 to 1.17), digestive diseases (1.06, 1.02 to 1.09), respiratory diseases (1.04, 1.00 to 1.08), cardiovascular diseases (1.02, 1.01 to 1.04), and neoplasms (1.02, 1.00 to 1.04). Mortality risks were substantially higher in communities with greater levels of deprivation and in those with historically fewer tropical cyclones, especially for renal, infectious, and digestive diseases, as well as for diabetes. Rainfall related to tropical cyclones had a more consistent increasing exposure-response relation with mortality risks, particularly for deaths related to respiratory, cardiovascular, and infectious diseases.

conclusionsAfter tropical cyclones, mortality risk increased variably for different causes, populations, and regions. Integrating epidemiological evidence into the development of management systems for climate extremes is urgently needed, particularly in regions with higher levels of deprivation and in those with historically fewer tropical cyclones. These measures are necessary to improve the adaptive capacity in responding to the growing risks and shifting activity of tropical cyclones in a warming climate.

Indexed as

Cyclonic StormsCause of DeathHumansRisk Factors

Identifiers

PMID41193239
PMCPMC12587673

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.