Evidence mapPaperPMID 41196485Full record

ArticleEndocrine2025

Establishment of an accurate prediction system for gestational diabetes mellitus based on the characteristics of metabolic kinetics in early pregnancy: a prospective two-center cohort study in population according to IOM criteria.

Junxiang Gao, Shuoning Song, Yanbei Duo, Xiaolin Qiao, Yuemei Zhang, Jiyu Xu, Jing Zhang, Xiaorui Nie, Qiujin Sun, Xianchun Yang and 8 more

Abstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in Endocrine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

18 authors.

Junxiang GaoDepartment of Endocrinology, Key Laboratory of Endocrinology of Ministry of Health, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Science and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Shuoning SongDepartment of Endocrinology, Key Laboratory of Endocrinology of Ministry of Health, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Science and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Yanbei DuoDepartment of Endocrinology, Key Laboratory of Endocrinology of Ministry of Health, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Science and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Xiaolin QiaoDepartment of Obstetrics, Beijing Chaoyang District Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Yuemei ZhangDepartment of Obstetrics, Haidian District Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Jiyu XuCore Facility of Instrument, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, School of Basic Medicine, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Jing ZhangDepartment of Laboratory, Haidian District Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Xiaorui NieDepartment of Obstetrics, Haidian District Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Qiujin SunDepartment of Clinical Laboratory, Beijing Chaoyang District Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Xianchun YangDepartment of Clinical Laboratory, Beijing Chaoyang District Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Ailing WangNational Center for Women and Children's Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Wei SunCore Facility of Instrument, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, School of Basic Medicine, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Yong FuDepartment of Endocrinology, Key Laboratory of Endocrinology of Ministry of Health, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Science and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Mengmeng ZhangDepartment of Endocrinology, Key Laboratory of Endocrinology of Ministry of Health, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Science and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Yingyue DongDepartment of Endocrinology, Key Laboratory of Endocrinology of Ministry of Health, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Science and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Zechun LuNational Center for Women and Children's Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Tao YuanDepartment of Endocrinology, Key Laboratory of Endocrinology of Ministry of Health, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Science and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, People's Republic of China. t75y@sina.com.
Weigang ZhaoDepartment of Endocrinology, Key Laboratory of Endocrinology of Ministry of Health, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Science and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, People's Republic of China. xiehezhaoweigang@163.com.

Funding

13th FiveYear National Science and Technology Major Project for New Drugs No. 2019ZX09734001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo develop an accurate prediction system for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in women adhering to Institute of Medicine (IOM) weight gain criteria by analyzing early-pregnancy metabolic kinetics and identifying independent risk factors.

methodsA prospective two-center cohort study enrolled 1,031 pregnant women meeting IOM guidelines. Clinical, anthropometric, and metabolic parameters (pre-pregnancy BMI, lipid profiles, inflammatory markers) were collected at 6–12 weeks of gestation. Machine learning models were trained on seven core variables identified via logistic regression, with performance evaluated by AUC, sensitivity, and specificity.

resultsThe GDM group (n = 279) exhibited significantly higher pre-pregnancy weight, BMI, triglycerides (1.21 vs. 0.96 mmol/L, p < 0.001), and inflammatory markers. Multivariate analysis identified parity ≥ 2 (OR = 4.37), family diabetes history (OR = 1.64), third-trimester weight (OR = 1.13), and triglycerides (OR = 1.49) as independent predictors. A neural network model achieved the highest AUC (0.732) with 65.1% sensitivity and 68.9% specificity, outperforming logistic regression and other algorithms. Dynamic weight trajectories and lipid dysregulation were critical risk drivers, even in IOM-compliant women.

conclusionIn pregnant women adhering to IOM weight gain standards, ​early-pregnancy metabolic dysfunction​and specific weight trajectories ​persist as pivotal GDM predictors. Our neural network model integrating seven core variables—including triglyceride levels, dynamic weight patterns (6–10 weeks and 24–28 weeks), and clinical risk factors—achieved superior prediction accuracy compared to conventional weight-centric approaches. This system enables early risk stratification and personalized interventions during the first trimester, addressing a critical gap in prenatal care for guideline-compliant populations at residual GDM risk.

Indexed as

Diabetes, GestationalGestational Weight GainAdultBody Mass IndexCohort StudiesFemaleHumansMachine LearningPrediction AlgorithmsPredictive Learning ModelsPregnancyPregnancy Trimester, FirstProspective StudiesRisk FactorsEarly predictionGestational diabetes mellitus (GDM)IOM criteriaMachine learningMetabolic kineticsObesity

Identifiers

PMID41196485
PMCPMC12708830

What Socratic holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.