SynthesisPharmacoEconomics2026
External Validation of the MicroSimulation Core Obesity Model (MS-COM) to Predict Cardiovascular Outcomes, Mortality and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Incidence and Assess Cost Effectiveness.
Synthesis in PharmacoEconomics, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Syndrome: Conceptualising an Approach to Health Economic Modelling.Diabetes, obesity & metabolism · 2026Review
- Validation of the Obesity Lifecycle Model Built to Assess the Cost Effectiveness of Novel Therapies in the Management of Obesity.PharmacoEconomics - open · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND AND
objectiveThe reliability of a decision model to guide decision making depends on its ability to accurately predict patient outcomes. We present results of an external validation of the MicroSimulation Core Obesity Model (MS-COM) that was developed to compare the cost effectiveness of obesity management interventions in adults.
methodsWe updated a 2018 systematic literature review of economic models in overweight and obesity and conducted additional targeted searches to identify suitable sources and outcomes to validate against MS-COM in people with overweight or obesity with or without type 2 diabetes. We extracted baseline characteristics and cardiovascular and mortality outcomes, where these were closely matched with MS-COM, and incidence of type 2 diabetes. We performed external-dependent (sources used in MS-COM) and external-independent (sources not used in MS-COM) validation. The extent of concordance between predicted and observed outcomes was assessed using the coefficient of determination (R
resultsNinety-nine potential independent validation sources were identified from 6381 screened records, of which nine studies reported cardiovascular and mortality outcomes that were closely matched with MS-COM, along with two studies that reported type 2 diabetes incidence (number of endpoints = 106). The dependent validation of cardiovascular and mortality outcomes (N = 18), based on the QRisk3 risk equation (normoglycaemia/prediabetes population) and UKPDS 82 (type 2 diabetes population), showed a good linear correlation with observed outcomes (R
conclusionsExternal validation of MS-COM showed good concordance with dependent and independent sources, suggesting the model accurately predicts obesity-related complications in an overweight/obese population with normoglycaemia/prediabetes and type 2 diabetes.
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