ArticleFrontiers in public health2025
Burden of lower respiratory infections in five East Asian countries from 1990 to 2021: observation, comparison, and forecast from the global burden of disease study 2021.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Objective: Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) remain a major global health challenge. Although the overall burden has declined, cross-country differences in long-term trends, age-sex patterns, and risk factors in East Asia are not well characterized. This study provides the first systematic comparison of long-term LRI trends across five East Asian countries-China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and Mongolia-using Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) data. Methods: We analyzed LRI incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021. Temporal trends were quantified by estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). We combined decomposition analysis and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting to quantify the relative contributions of population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes, and to project future trajectories. Risk factor attribution was evaluated using population-attributable fractions, and age-sex patterns were compared across countries. Results: From 1990 to 2021, all five countries showed substantial reductions in age-standardized incidence and mortality, with Mongolia and China achieving the steepest declines. The burden shifted from children under five to older adults, particularly those aged ≥70 years, a novel epidemiological transition most evident in Japan and Korea. Decomposition indicated that epidemiological improvements were the primary drivers of mortality reductions, while population aging in Japan and Korea partially counteracted these improvements. Forecasts suggest continued declines in incidence and mortality across most countries, though Japan may experience a plateau in mortality. Conclusion: This study provides the first systematic comparison of long-term LRI trends across five East Asian countries. While the overall burden has declined, population aging, air pollution, and smoking are emerging challenges. By combining decomposition and ARIMA forecasting, our findings highlight the shift from children to older adults and offer timely evidence for age-sensitive, country-specific interventions such as vaccination for older adults, environmental regulation, and tobacco control.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What Socratic holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.