ArticleJCI insight2025
Minimalistic transcriptomic signatures permit accurate early prediction of COVID-19 mortality.
Article in JCI insight, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Reply to Liu et al. and Chen et al.American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine · 2026Article
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41 authors.
Funding
Abstract
BACKGROUNDAccurate prognostic assays for COVID-19 represent an unmet clinical need. We sought to identify and validate early parsimonious transcriptomic signatures that accurately predict fatal outcomes.METHODSWe studied 894 patients enrolled in the prospective, multicenter Immunophenotyping Assessment in a COVID-19 Cohort (IMPACC) with peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) and nasal swabs collected within 48 hours of admission. Host gene expression was measured with RNA-Seq. We trained parsimonious prognostic classifiers incorporating host gene expression, age, and SARS-CoV-2 viral load to predict 28-day mortality in 70% of the cohort. Classifier performance was determined in the remaining 30% and externally validated in a contemporary COVID-19 cohort (n = 137) with vaccinated patients.RESULTSFatal COVID-19 was characterized by 4,189 differentially expressed genes in the peripheral blood. A COVID-specific 3-gene peripheral blood classifier (CD83, ATP1B2, DAAM2) combined with age and SARS-CoV-2 viral load achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.82-0.94). A 3-gene nasal classifier (SLC5A5, CD200R1, FCER1A), in comparison, yielded an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI, 0.64-0.83). Notably, OLAH, the most strongly upregulated gene in both PBMC and nasal swab and recently implicated in severe viral infection pathogenesis, yielded AUCs of 0.86 (0.79-0.93) and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.69-0.86), respectively. Both peripheral blood classifiers demonstrated comparable performance in an independent contemporary cohort of vaccinated patients (AUCs 0.74-0.80).CONCLUSIONOur parsimonious blood- and nasal-based classifiers accurately predicted COVID-19 mortality and merit further study as accessible prognostic tools to guide triage, resource allocation, and early therapeutic interventions.FUNDINGNIH: 5R01AI135803-03, R35HL140026, 5U19AI118608-04, 5U19AI128910-04, 4U19AI090023-11, 4U19AI118610-06, R01AI145835-01A1S1, 5U19AI062629-17, 5U19AI057229-17, 5U19AI125357-05, 5U19AI128913-03, 3U19AI077439-13, 5U54AI142766-03, 5R01AI104870-07, 3U19AI089992-09, 3U19AI128913-03, 5T32DA018926-18, and K0826161611. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH: 3U19AI1289130, U19AI128913-04S1, and R01AI122220. National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, NIH: UM1TR004528. The National Science Foundation: DMS2310836. The Chan Zuckerberg Biohub San Francisco.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.