Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41214603›Full record

Observational studyBMC public health2025

A comparison of anthropometric indicators in predicting the incidence of diabetes and intermediate hyperglycaemia in Finland: a 22-year observational study.

Julia Lybeck, Jaakko Tuomilehto, Jouko Saramies, Markku Koiranen, Hannu Uusitalo, Sirkka Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi, Kadri Suija

Abstract readObservational StudyComparative Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in BMC public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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0citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Julia LybeckInstitute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia. julialybeck@gmail.com.
Jaakko TuomilehtoPublic Health Promotion Unit, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland. jaakko.tuomilehto@helsinki.fi.
Jouko SaramiesWellbeing Services County of South Karelia, Lappeenranta, Finland.
Markku KoiranenFaculty of Medicine, Research Unit of Population Health, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland.
Hannu UusitaloDepartment of Ophthalmology, Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, SILK, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland.
Sirkka Keinänen-KiukaanniemiFaculty of Medicine, Research Unit of Population Health, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland.
Kadri SuijaInstitute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundGiven the rising global prevalence of obesity and its strong association with type 2 diabetes, this study aims to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of various anthropometric indicators in predicting the incidence of type 2 diabetes and intermediate hyperglycaemia (IH) over a 22-year period. Due to the limitations of body mass index as a predictive marker, the study assesses alternative metrics, including waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), waist circumference (WC), and relative fat mass (RFM), to determine their predictive power for type 2 diabetes and intermediate hyperglycaemia.

methodsThe cohort comprised 1168 adults (aged ≥ 50 years) from Savitaipale, Finland. Data collection included clinical and laboratory assessments and questionnaires at baseline and at the 10-, and 22-year follow-ups. The incidence of type 2 diabetes and IH was assessed via a 2-h oral glucose tolerance test and health care registry data. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) metrics were used to evaluate the predictive power of each indicator, stratified by sex.

resultsWHR had the highest predictive accuracy for type 2 diabetes in men (AUC = 0.70), whereas RFM and WHtR were equally predictive in women (AUC = 0.68). For IH, RFM and WHR were most predictive in men, and WHtR in women. Combining multiple indicators improved the sensitivity of type 2 diabetes prediction.

conclusionsAlternative anthropometric indicators offer comparable predictive value and show potential for individualised type 2 diabetes and IH risk assessment. Sex-specific cutoffs and a multi-indicator approach could be used to improve screening and early intervention strategies, potentially improving public health management of diabetes risk.

Indexed as

AnthropometryDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2HyperglycemiaAgedFemaleFinlandHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedPredictive Value of TestsWaist CircumferenceWaist-Height RatioWaist-Hip RatioAnthropometric indicatorsBody mass indexIntermediate hyperglycaemiaPredictive accuracySex-specific cutoffsType 2 diabetes

Identifiers

PMID41214603
PMCPMC12604145

What Socratic holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.